The world of freight transportation is changing rapidly.  The signs are there and they are unmistakable.  Recognizing and responding effectively to these signals may help determine which shippers and carriers will survive in the years ahead.  Let’s examine the components of the new paradigm of freight transportation.

The Era is Cheap Oil is Over

The steep escalation in fuel prices this year is a harbinger of things to come for shippers and carriers.  This time there will likely be no major recession to bring energy prices down.  The sad fact is that 95 percent of transportation modes, passenger and freight, run on petroleum products and the likelihood of finding new sources of supply or of shrinkage in global demand is highly unlikely. In fact the use of petroleum in countries such as China and India is on the rise.

The result will be tighter truck capacity, greater use of intermodal rail services, the electrification of transportation systems, the relocation of factories and distribution centres and the slow shift to cleaner, cheaper fuels.  It will drive more LCV’s (long combination vehicles) or “turnpikes” and more triple trailer configurations.  This may be the impetus to harmonize our laws throughout North America to remove barriers to the movement of the most energy efficient vehicle combinations across our highways.   To curb use, many countries will have to begin looking at the Danish example of higher taxes on fuel inefficient vehicles and higher taxes on petroleum.  Get used to it.

The Driver Shortage is Real

This past week I had the opportunity to speak with some of North America’s leading truckers.  Other than the “head shots” in this year’s National Hockey League playoffs, the other number one topic of discussion on everyone’s mind is the issue of driver shortages.  I also had an opportunity to read what the Canadian Trucking Alliance labels “a new, eye-opening report” from the Blue Ribbon Task Force they established in 2011 to address the impending shortage of qualified commercial drivers in Canada. 

In this blog, I would like share a few thoughts on this hot topic.

The problem is real

There are some shippers who believe that this issue is manufactured by the trucking industry to help sell freight rate increases.  Let me assure my shipper friends that this is not correct.  Trucking companies all over North America are having difficulty attracting “qualified drivers.”  By this term we mean skilled professional drivers or people interested in becoming professionals. 

This shortage is being created by an aging workforce, lifestyle issues (e.g. having to spend time away from home), a lack of interest from women, the challenges of the work, the level and structure of the compensation and the fact that driving truck is not viewed as a profession.  The fact is that while there are millions of Americans and Canadians out of work, driving truck is not considered an option for most people.

At a recent Driving for Profit Seminar in Toronto, Lou Smyrlis, Editorial Director of Canadian Transportation & Logistics Magazine, led two trucking company investment advisors, Doug Nix, Vice Chairman of Corporate Finance Associates and Doug Davis, Independent Director, Pro-Trans Ventures Inc. through a discussion of how to buy and sell trucking companies in 2012.  Here is what they had to say.

From a buyer perspective, they encouraged companies to be proactive in seeking out prospective acquisition candidates.  Since so much about buying is timing, it always important to plant the seed and remain in contact.  While a trucking company’s leaders may not be ready to sell their enterprise in the second quarter of 2012, it is at least important as a purchaser to express your interest. One should also keep in mind that the purchase process itself can take six to nine months or more complete.

The buyer should carefully think through some key questions such as “why” make this purchase, what are the underlying business risks of a potential acquisition, do they have the investment advisor team in place to guide them through the process and do they have the “bandwidth” (management team) to manage the acquisition? In other words, can the company manage its current base of business while it is trying to assimilate new customers, new employees and possibly fit two cultures together?

The two advisors mentioned that they use a valuation multiple for an asset-based business of 3.75 X normalized EBITDA.  The word “normalized” is an important concept since this refers to what the earnings will look like when certain expenses or withdrawals that are taken out of the company by the current owners are removed from the income statement to better reflect what the business will look like on a going forward basis.

The purchaser must look at a number of variables in determining how to pay for the company.  The advisers related it to buying a home. The purchaser looks at what they can make in terms of a down payment and the level of mortgage they wish to carry.   Similarly, when buying a trucking company, one needs to consider the financial structure of their offer.  This involves an evaluation of cask payment, business loan and earn-out.  The latter is a common term that refers to principle of paying the seller part of the purchase price from monies earned by the business over a period of years.  If the sellers remain with the business after implementation and help maintain the income flow, they are rewarded with a business retention bonus for their efforts. 

Two experts in trucking company acquisitions predicted this week that we are in store for an upswing in industry consolidation in 2012.  This was one of the highlights of the Driving for Profit event that was held in Mississauga this past week.   Lou Smyrlis, Editorial Director of Canadian Transportation & Logistics interviewed two gentlemen who play significant roles in these types of activities, Doug Nix, Vice Chairman of Corporate Finance Associates and Doug Davis, Independent Director, Pro-Trans Ventures Inc.

In the initial stages of the interview, Lou asked these gentlemen about why we did not see more consolidation during the recent recession. The key takeaway from this discussion was that during this difficult period, trucking companies hunkered down into a “survival mode.”   The recession created devaluations of trucking company businesses.  Most truckers decided to tough it out until valuations improved.  Lenders, who saw trucking as a core industry, chose to support the industry until economic conditions improved.

The two investment advisors now believe that M & A activity will now increase.  They base this conclusion on the fact that after a 3 year hiatus, there is a pent-up demand.  There is a “ton of cash” waiting to be invested.  Balance sheets are healthy again.  During the recession, many trucking companies right-sized their businesses.  Investors will now see more efficient, stable businesses. 

Demographics will also play a part as many baby boomers who are seeking an exit strategy are three years older and their timetable for leaving the industry is now shorter.  We now have willing buyers, sellers and bankers.  While the two gentlemen do not predict a “feeding frenzy,” they do expect to see a doubling in the volume of trucking company acquisitions as compared to what we saw the last three years.

Lou then asked these advisors about the types of deals we are likely to see.  They expressed the view that there will likely be more “bolt-ons” where companies seek to expand a core business.  These types of deals allow companies to “improve overheads, bring margins into line” and “reduce dependence: on certain “key customers.”  When asked a question about whether we can expect to see a blockbuster deal like the Yellow-Roadway merger in the U.S., Doug Nix made the observation that the money would be there if the right plans with the right people are put in place.  However he opined that he does not think Canadians have the “chutzpah” to make a deal of this nature.

As the cost of diesel fuel hovers around $4.00 a gallon in the United States and $1.30 a liter in Canada, trucking companies (and politicians) are again focusing on strategies to control energy costs that have risen forty percent since 2010.  President Barack Obama firmly defended his record on oil drilling last week and ordered the government to fast-track an Oklahoma pipeline while accusing Congress of playing politics with a larger Canada-to-Gulf Coast project.  Alberta, home to the world’s third largest pool of oil reserves, is working to increase capacity to transport crude amid opposition from environmental groups as companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Suncor invest about C$20 billion annually in the oil sands. 

In addition to increasing supply, trucking companies are instituting measures to ensure these energy supplies are utilized as efficiently as possible.  Three such strategies were highlighted in a recent paper prepared by Derek Singleton, ERP Analyst at Software Advice.  Here are some excerpts from Derek’s paper and from other industry sources.

Careful planning and the use of predictive technologies–such as distribution business software–can minimize the impact fuel costs have on the bottom line. Companies that manage a fleet can cope with rising fuel costs using three general strategies:

1. 1.Streamline fuel procurement;
2. 2.Improve operations and fleet management; and,
3. 3.Better plan delivery routes and shipment loads.

Managing fuel costs isn’t just about taking steps to control the costs. According to David Zahn, VP of Marketing at FuelQuest, significant savings can be realized simply by building predictability into fuel procurement budgets. Gas prices typically swing five cents per gallon, up or down, on any given day. When purchasing thousands of gallons of gas, buying at the wrong time can be devastating to a company’s bottom line.

Technology solutions like FuelQuest give companies that store gas a way to forecast demand, monitor on-hand fuel, and procure at the best market price. Automating the fuel procurement process, says Zahn, typically saves companies four to six cents per gallon.