Covid-19, and its effects on our personal and business lives, was clearly the major story of 2020. This topic was covered in the previous blog.  The impacts of the other major news story, the Biden / Harris election, will play out over the next four years. However, there were several other surface transportation events over the past 12 months that were significant. They are summarized below.

1. Digitization advances in the world of Freight Transportation

Digitization, the replacement of manual, paper-based information processes with electronic ones is transforming the industry. The benefits are clear. Shippers obtain precise data on cargo, from pickup to delivery, on which to base decisions. Carriers have more data on how and where they serve specific shippers and on their true costs. The wave of digital technologies already transforming truckload and brokerage is reaching into LTL, driven in part by larger supply chain changes and by the explosion of e-commerce.

Technology is not the problem; some trucking companies have been electronically sharing data with customers since the 1980s, first via electronic data interchange (EDI) and more recently via application program interfaces (APIs). The roadblock is in the process, in implementing digital standards, and in getting customers to buy into going digital.

The Covid-19 pandemic, and the response of the Canadian and U.S. governments and citizens to the virus, is clearly the major story of 2020. The pandemic did not just have impacts on the health of many Americans (i.e. over 11 million cases, 250,000 deaths) and Canadians (i.e. over 306,000 cases, 11,000 deaths); it also had significant impacts on our personal lives, business operations, and freight transportation. This blog will highlight the huge effect of Covid-19 on so many aspects of our lives; an upcoming blog will capture some of the other top freight stories of the past year.

1. Covid-19 – The Impact on our Health and Personal Lives

Millions of Americans and Canadians have been infected and continue to be infected at an escalating rate. Personal reactions have ranged from mild flu-like symptoms to significant health issues to death. To protect oneself from contracting the virus, many citizens have begun wearing masks and other PPE, limiting the size of groups with whom they interact and trying to maintain six feet or more of distance between themselves and others.

The lack of national strategies in Canada and the USA on testing, tracing, and quarantining have resulted in a protracted and extensive virus spread. Varying guidelines on mask utilization, industry sector lockdowns and re-openings, and varying leadership approaches have created confusion, fragmented responses, and disappointing results. Many citizens must stay home if they tested positive, if they had symptoms, or if they had to be quarantined. Many primary, secondary and university students are now participating in online learning rather than attending schools. The year is ending with at least two potentially effective vaccines, which will likely be distributed during the first six months of 2021.

Here is my annual recap of the major trends that shaped the Surface Transportation industry during the past year.

1. The Reboot – The Trucking Industry goes into a Freight Recession in 2019

After a booming first three quarters of 2018, the trucking industry contracted in the fourth quarter; by mid-April of 2019, it became apparent (https://www.barrons.com/articles/trucking-industry-is-in-a-recession-will-economy-follow-51565880739) that the trucking industry was in a “freight recession.” In a “strange inversion of market dynamics,” truckload rates dipped below intermodal rates in some lanes. By mid-year, the Cass Freight Shipper Expenditure Index turned negative year / year signaling that shippers were paying less for freight and moving fewer loads than the previous year.

The correction seemed to be a result of several factors. Slower industrial production was evidenced by the dip below 50 in the ISM Production Index. Trade tensions and tariff wars with China reduced demand. On the supply side, many truckers added to their fleets to address the capacity shortages in 2018. This coupled with higher pay to attract drivers and increasing insurance costs, drove up expenses as freight rates were falling. Softening demand, coupled with excess capacity, produced the Freight Recession of 2019.

This has been a remarkable year in history and in the world of Freight Transportation. Here are some observations on the major developments that will shape 2019.

1. The Coming Economic Downturn and Recession

The looming emerging markets credit crisis is expected to grow in both scale and scope. Some emerging markets have come under serious economic and financial stress as a result of foreign-denominated debt and currency depreciations. An emerging markets credit crisis will unfold in 2019.

Most economic forecasters, including various government agencies and big Wall Street banks, expect the American economy to continue growing in 2019. But there is a broad consensus that the pace will slow as the “sugar high” provided by the Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion tax cut and spending increases begin to wear off.

This has been a remarkable year for the Surface Freight Transportation industry in North America. Here are some of the top stories for the past 12 months.

1. The Booming Economy

The booming economy was the single biggest story in the Freight Transportation industry in 2018. After years of steady but modest growth following the Great Recession of a decade ago, the economies of North America took off. A very strong jobs market, record employment, high consumer confidence, deregulation, and a tax cut in the United States stimulated an economy that was already at full throttle. Instead of a “storm” we experienced a powerful explosion. Americans and Canadians were working and spending money, pushing freight volumes to very elevated levels.

2. Climate Change