The year 2023 was a challenging one for those involved in the freight transportation industry. Here are some of the major forces shaping 2024.

Supply and Demand are Moving Toward Equilibrium

Many industry experts used the term Freight Recession to describe the state of the industry in 2023. There is no doubt that there was excess truck capacity in 2023, a carryover from the freight boom during the early stages of the pandemic. As consumers shifted their financial resources in 2023 from buying goods to purchasing travel and services, trucking companies expanded their fleets, creating the disconnect.

It is also clear that an uptick in inflation, caused by higher interest rates and a rise in the prices of food, gasoline and other products put a damper on demand. However, many citizens experienced an increase in compensation. Consumer spending remained solid and consumer confidence is high at the beginning of the New Year. The Freight Recession was really a Carrier Capacity Surplus, too many trucks chasing too little freight.

 The White House and the media are touting the tentative agreement reached last night between the major U.S. rails and their unions to avert a strike. The agreement, if ratified by union members, would help avert a work stoppage that would have crippled supply chains and passenger trains and would have restricted the movement of essential goods to distribution centers and consumers. A rail strike could severely impact a range of industries, from the autos to agriculture to retail, as about 40% of goods that are shipped long distance in the U.S. rely on the nation's rail system. It could also cause disruptions to the energy industry in ways that may lead consumers to pay more for gasoline, natural gas, and electricity. A shortage of essential goods would precipitate price increases, inflation, and significant economic damage if it persisted for an extended period.

Averting a rail strike comes at a price, a 24% compound wage increase over its five-year term, as well as an annual lump-sum bonus payment totaling $5,000. One should not overlook the fact that these wages increases will create more inflationary pressure. Rail freight transportation remains an important part of North American economies. These wage increases will trigger increases in the cost of rail freight transportation. This is not to say that rail workers are not deserving of an increase in wages and benefits. The point is that these increases contribute to the challenges we are all experiencing with inflation and will make it more difficult for central banks to bring down inflation.

The Wall Street Journal reported that “the U.S. consumer-price index rose 8.3% in August from the same month a year ago, down from 8.5% in July and 9.1% in June, the Labor Department said Tuesday. The slower rate of increase reflected falling gasoline prices last month.

Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy items and are seen as a better gauge of underlying price pressures, rose a notable 0.6% in August from July—double their 0.3% increase in July from June. The core CPI rose 6.3% in August from a year earlier, up from 5.9% in both June and July, reflecting higher prices for housing, medical care and college tuition.

Freight volumes are at record levels on many lanes this fall. Load rejections, freight embargoes and rate increases are now becoming the norm. Even driver shortages, which started to dwindle in the early stages of the pandemic, are once again a factor in securing capacity to move freight. Motor carriers have leverage as to the shippers they wish to serve. For the past several decades, many shippers have turned to a commonly used tool to secure capacity and competitive rates, the freight bid.

My colleagues and I have reviewed many bids over the years and have successfully conducted dozens of these projects for our shipper clients. In some cases, we have been asked by carriers to help them prepare responses to the bids they receive. We have also reviewed RFPs for many other kinds of services including software procurement, organizational structure review, transportation, and production process efficiency. In so many cases we have remarked that our services would have been just as valuable helping the bid or RFP issuer craft a document that met basic professional standards for quality through attention to detail and exacting editing.

Sure, carriers will respond (sometimes) to poorly crafted bids, but they do so with a somewhat diminished opinion of the requesting company. This is only natural – we all tend to be editors and evaluators, especially of documents that require time and effort to prepare a response.

What separates the successful from the unsuccessful RFPs? This is what we have observed.

In my previous blog (https://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/where-is-the-freight-transportation-industry-headed-in-2020), I outlined some of the forces shaping the freight transportation industry in 2020. This will likely be another year of upheaval.

In brief, the current “manufacturing recession” is restraining freight volumes. There will likely be a removal of a glut of fleet equipment. This coupled with the ELD compliance requirements in the US and Canada, and high insurance costs, may push out more poorly financed carriers. Political instability in the Middle East may drive up fuel costs. The maintenance of tariffs, even after the signing of the phase 1 China / US trade deal, will continue to drive up costs of supplies from China. This will likely make this a challenging year for shippers and carriers. It is very likely that shippers will face rising freight rates in 2020 to offset rising costs.

What can shippers do to restrain freight costs in 2020? Here are a few thoughts

1. Reevaluate your network and shipping practices

During the wild and woolly 2018, freight bid activity subsided as shippers searched for capacity wherever they could find it. As we have seen, 2018 was an anomaly, a one of a kind. As we pass the mid-point of 2019, the dynamics of the freight market have changed significantly from the prior year. Business volumes are strong but not at the levels of 2018. To meet shipper demands, many carriers added capacity to their truck fleets. The theme of 2019 is more capacity chasing more moderate freight volumes. What does this all mean from the perspective of freight rates?

Looking at the results of the most recent Morgan Stanley Truckload Sentiment Survey, only 14% of the respondents consider the current truckload demand to be strong while 62% describe it as neutral (supply and demand in balance) and 24% consider it to be weak. Three months down the road, 67% of the respondents expect truckload demand to be neutral while 15% expect it to be weak; only 18% expect freight demand to be strong.

Forty-one percent of respondents perceive truckload capacity to be abundant while 50% consider it to be neutral; only 9% categorize capacity as tight. Three months from now, as we enter the fall shipping season, 25% expect capacity to be abundant while 61% still expect it to be neutral; only 14% expect capacity to be tight.

The New Year has started off with a bang. With the stock market at record levels, unemployment at historic lows in Canada and the United States and a new U.S. tax bill that promises to put extra dollars in the hands of American purchasers, it is not surprising that consumer confidence is at a high. The strong GDP numbers reflect that people are spending money again. It is no wonder that the Dow Transportation index is also at record levels (https://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/07/01/dow-jones-transportation-average-close-to-record-high/ ). This is great news for trucking companies.

December was also a historic month for the trucking industry. The electronic logging device (ELD) mandate took effect at the end of December. This measure which is designed to increase driver safety, is projected to restrict the availability of truck capacity in the United States. Of course, a driver shortage has already made capacity tight. Companies that comply with the mandate must work within specific time windows. Those that don’t conform to the mandate risk being pulled off the road, over time, as compliance becomes stricter.

The result is that freight rates are projected to increase in 2018. In a letter to customers (https://www.sdcexec.com/warehousing/news/12371547/jb-hunt-tells-customers-to-budget-for-10-percent-cost-increase ), JB Hunt suggested that freight rates may increase by as much as ten percent or more. At the Surface Transportation Summit held in Toronto in October 2017, John Larkin, Managing Director of Research, Stifel Financial Corp. shared the following rate increase projections with the audience.

One of the most frequent complaints I hear from carriers, in person, on social media, or at conferences, is about the number and quality of freight bids that they receive. Carriers complain about the poor quality of the data, the number of carriers in the bid, and about the lack of professionalism in the bid process. They also assert that if the shipper would just meet with them face to face, rather than through a bid process, the result would be more successful for both parties and would take a lot less time, money and effort.

My company has designed and executed many successful bids over the past fourteen years. We have learned that for many shippers, success comes from getting “your house in order” before executing the bid. This is what is involved.

Many shippers have been moving the same freight, to the same consignees, using the same processes, for several years. In their haste to put their freight out for bid, they overlook certain aspects of their business.

Recent stock market and currency value declines in China and Canada point to a challenging year ahead for the economies of these two countries and many others around the world. While the United States has remained fairly stable amidst current world turmoil, its high valued currency may slow exports to its key trading partners. If business levels deteriorate this year, this will place added pressure on shippers who are trying to manage their freight costs? Is this a year to conduct a freight bid?

Certainly faltering economic conditions typically encourage manufacturers and distributors to conduct RFPs to keep freight costs as low as possible. Beyond the general state of the economy, there are a usually a range of conditions that set the stage for a successful freight bid. Here a few to consider.

Freight bid projects have become one of the most commonly used methods of sourcing freight transportation services over the past two decades. They have become popular with shippers for obvious reasons. When done well, they produce good results. Manufacturers and distributors can strengthen their supply chains by selecting a dedicated group of professional transportation companies and save money on freight costs.

The carrier perspective on freight bids is often quite different from that of most shippers. They tend to dislike them for several reasons.

1. Many bids are not well done.

2. The process of responding to these bids is a lot of work and they often don’t produce any business.

Monitoring carrier performance is an ongoing process. Some trucking companies will track performance for new shippers with a heightened level of intensity for a designated period of time and then revert back to old habits or standard service levels when the shipper’s focus is no longer there.

Every shipper should understand that there is no start or finish date to monitoring carrier performance. During the bid process, shippers need to outline the service performance that they expect and set up processes and reports to receive actual performance data on an ongoing basis. A web-based dashboard can allow shippers to monitor key KPIs (e.g. missed pick-ups, on-time deliveries) in real time. Monthly scorecards can provide the shipper with detailed reports and highlight any service failures that may have occurred. For new carriers, weekly reports and meetings may be necessary to ensure a smooth implementation.

As the carriers come up the learning and performance curves, these meetings can be cut back to monthly, quarterly or semi-annual, as needed. Success from freight bids is a result of a high level of attention to detail. Dashboards and scorecards that provide information on service, billing accuracy, missing or lost freight, are invaluable tools. These tools coupled with ongoing meetings will help keep the carriers’ “feet to the fire” and maintain the levels of savings achieved.

If your company provides hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars in revenue to certain carriers, they are a critical part of your success, or failure and vice versa. While a rate quote may be a suitable form of agreement between shipper and carrier, for low volume service providers, it is not adequate for larger bid awards. There are several reasons for this.

First, a written agreement between the parties can spell out the nature of the business relationship (e.g. parties to the agreement, governing law of which country, state or province, services expected, etc.). Second, in this era of tight capacity, there is a requirement to obtain written commitments from transport providers on various elements of service performance (e.g. on-time pick-up, transit times, billing accuracy etc.).  These can be detailed in a set of SLAs or Service Level Agreements that can be attached to the core agreement.

Third, the full set of rates, accessorial charges and terms and conditions should be attached so there is no disputing the costs the shipper will incur over the agreed contract period.  Fourth, there should be a written understanding concerning the length of the bid award and a mechanism or formula (e.g. CPI increase) for rate increases in subsequent years. Fifth, there should be a written understanding as to what measures can be taken in the event of non-performance.

The intent is not to create legalistic, adversarial relationships with a company’s core carriers; rather signing written agreements will establish a framework for service performance and communication that can promote understanding and co-operation. In other words, the document will provide clarity with respect to expectations, performance and costs that can be quite beneficial to both parties.  

As the freight bid process comes to conclusion, there is an urgency to award the business so the shipper can begin enjoying  the cost savings that were achieved. While this is understandable, it is important to keep several things in mind.

First, if business is being awarded to new carriers, they need to come up a learning curve before they are as experienced as the incumbents. Second, some new carriers may have over committed during the bid process and are not able to perform at the expected level. For example, they may only serve certain lanes on particular days of the week or they may not have enough head haul or back haul traffic to bring their equipment back as quickly as expected.

Sometimes the shipper is at fault by not identifying the full scope of their requirements during the bid process. The company may have forgotten to disclose or incorrectly assumed that every carrier can make an 8:00 AM pickup or delivery every day. When informed, the carrier may determine that the best they can do, with their network, is effect a 10:00 AM or 11:00 AM delivery but no earlier. This may not be satisfactory for the shipper since they may need the freight early in the morning so they can dispatch their delivery vans at 8:00 AM to provide the service demanded by their clients.

We suggest that you test market at least some of the new carriers while keeping the existing carriers in place on those blocks of business. In other words, share the freight until such time that the new carriers have demonstrated that they can meet the service requirements. Guide the new carriers through the transition in order to increase their odds of success. Remember that this will create a win/win situation. This is also a good test of the professionalism of your incumbents.

We live in an ever-changing world. Trucking companies come and go. They are being bought, sold, merged, downsized and resized every day. Under new management, a company may flourish or deteriorate. In this era of driver shortages, carriers are being very deliberate about how they allocate their capacity. As they focus on yield management, this precious capacity is being supplied to the carriers' most profitable customers.

In addition, trucking companies are constantly adding and losing business. A trucking firm may add a new account tomorrow at a higher margin than they are receiving from your business. This may cause them to make their capacity more readily available to another client. The bottom line is that it is always prudent to prepare for a “rainy day.” In other words, there is value in having backup carriers for most of your business.

This means that it is critical during the rounds of bidding, to smooth out the variances in rates between your “low bidders” and the others who were on the short list. By doing this, it reduces the cost differential in making a switch for any of a variety of reasons (e.g. poor service, carrier goes out of business, de-markets certain lanes etc.).

It should also be kept in mind that a carrier will not be too motivated to serve your company if they are a backup carrier in name but receive no freight. To achieve success with freight bids, carefully determine your primary and secondary carriers. This should include both asset and non-asset based providers.  While the temptation is there to give all your freight to the low bidder, to maximize savings, this can be a risky strategy. Where possible, select primary and secondary carriers. Give your backup carriers a reasonable volume of freight so as to keep the primary carriers “honest” and to keep all of your transportation providers engaged in serving your company.

We live in an era of impersonal communication. E mails, text messages, tweets and GoToMeetings have replaced face to face communication in many instances.

The decision to award millions or tens of millions of dollars in freight transportation to a set of carriers is a very important one. You don’t want to entrust your company’s business and reputation to poor service providers that say they will meet your needs and don’t deliver. You don’t want to commit your business to carriers that offer low pricing to secure the contract and then come back a few weeks later with a rate increase, claiming they misunderstood the bid. These situations happen all too often and they can be very disruptive and financially punitive to shippers.

It is our view that the bid evaluation and award process cannot be done effectively through automated computer programs. There is a requirement to meet “eyeball to eyeball” with companies that may be your future business partners. These meetings should have a formal agenda. In addition to pricing issues, there is value in reviewing the carriers’ operations in detail. This includes:

a) fleet size and age