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Freight Rates, Inflation, and the Economy

Posted by on in Economy

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 The White House and the media are touting the tentative agreement reached last night between the major U.S. rails and their unions to avert a strike. The agreement, if ratified by union members, would help avert a work stoppage that would have crippled supply chains and passenger trains and would have restricted the movement of essential goods to distribution centers and consumers. A rail strike could severely impact a range of industries, from the autos to agriculture to retail, as about 40% of goods that are shipped long distance in the U.S. rely on the nation's rail system. It could also cause disruptions to the energy industry in ways that may lead consumers to pay more for gasoline, natural gas, and electricity. A shortage of essential goods would precipitate price increases, inflation, and significant economic damage if it persisted for an extended period.

Averting a rail strike comes at a price, a 24% compound wage increase over its five-year term, as well as an annual lump-sum bonus payment totaling $5,000. One should not overlook the fact that these wages increases will create more inflationary pressure. Rail freight transportation remains an important part of North American economies. These wage increases will trigger increases in the cost of rail freight transportation. This is not to say that rail workers are not deserving of an increase in wages and benefits. The point is that these increases contribute to the challenges we are all experiencing with inflation and will make it more difficult for central banks to bring down inflation.

The Wall Street Journal reported that “the U.S. consumer-price index rose 8.3% in August from the same month a year ago, down from 8.5% in July and 9.1% in June, the Labor Department said Tuesday. The slower rate of increase reflected falling gasoline prices last month.

Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy items and are seen as a better gauge of underlying price pressures, rose a notable 0.6% in August from July—double their 0.3% increase in July from June. The core CPI rose 6.3% in August from a year earlier, up from 5.9% in both June and July, reflecting higher prices for housing, medical care and college tuition.

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These are challenging times for shippers. Driver, labor and truck shortages, port congestion, escalating freight and fuel costs, coupled with the lingering effects of Covid are making life difficult for shippers across the world. Here are a few coping strategies

1. Work in Partnership with Procurement to Create Alternate Sourcing Strategies for both Raw Materials and Transportation

Every day we read and see images in the media of containers sitting at ports, or offshore, waiting to dock at a port. We also read about embargoes and about carriers refusing to pick up or deliver to certain markets.

This is a time when Purchasing and Transportation must work together. It is no longer just a question of finding reliable sources of supply; it is also a question of whether goods can be picked up from or delivered to selected markets. Procurement and Transportation must communicate about alternate sources of supply, particularly about finding vendors in North America to mitigate supply chain bottlenecks and satisfy customer requirements.

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Truck capacity remains tight during this peak season and this is expected to continue into 2021 as inventories are replenished. We are seeing all-time highs in the number of loads in the spot market. Despite the impact of Covid-19, capacity has been reduced by a decrease in the truck driver workforce that occurred during the pandemic. This resulted from some carriers going out of business, some selling excess equipment, an increase in insurance rates, and some drivers receiving sufficient income from COVID-related government aid to stay out of the workforce and/or refusing to work to prevent themselves from being infected.

Although many businesses slowed or paused their operations at the onset of the pandemic, there was an influx of shipments as North American markets began to reopen. It should also be noted that since freight transportation is deemed an essential service, cross-border shipping has remained open. While some sectors of the economy (i.e. travel, restaurants etc.) remain depressed, the surge in freight demand has continued as companies seek to return to their usual operations and recoup lost profits. U.S. Xpress (NYSE: USX) noted in a late-September publication that rate increases in 2021 needed to be in the 10%-plus range to recoup the impact of the last two negative bid cycles and two years’ worth of cost inflation.

As a result of this shortage of drivers and the high demand for freight transportation, carriers are being more selective with the allocation of their assets and are raising rates. This fall we are hearing of freight embargoes as certain carriers restrict the availability of their assets to their highest yielding customers and lanes.

There has also been tight capacity across intermodal rail. Due to the influx of freight that followed the initial downturn at the start of the pandemic, there has been a shortage of available equipment, including containers and chassis, at railroad terminals and ramps across all major metropolitan areas. The congestion from this abundance of freight has led to frequent delays ranging from 24-72 hours in key markets. There is also a shortage of draymen due to organizational restructuring at various drayage companies, including layoffs, furloughs, leave of absences, etc.

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From a Freight Transportation perspective, the past two years have been among the most tumultuous in decades. Throughout 2018, an economic surge, a shortage of qualified drivers, and the implementation of the ELD mandate in the United States, created a shortage of freight capacity, particularly in the truckload sector. Shippers struggled to find trucks to move their loads.

To address these shortfalls, many shippers were forced to pay significantly higher rates, establish dedicated fleets and/or change their freight operations to become a “Shipper of Choice.” Rather than simply tender their loads, shippers were advised to become more “carrier friendly.” This encompassed a range of activities.

Becoming a “Shipper of Choice”

Shippers learned that they could improve their chances of securing needed truck space by giving carriers advance notice of a pending surge in business volumes. Another way to improve carrier relations was to help fleets keep their trucks on the road, rather than sitting in warehouse yards or at loading docks. To avoid carrier detention fees for long waits, shippers and receivers were encouraged to improve appointment scheduling and freight loading / unloading processes.

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It is hard to believe that a decade has gone by since the Great Recession. Those of us in the Freight Transportation Industry at that time remember the sharp drop in business activity and freight volumes. This encouraged many shippers to conduct multiple freight bids during that period to use (abuse) their freight rate negotiating leverage to reduce their shipping costs. Carrier loyalty was sacrificed for freight cost savings.

One year ago, the tables were totally reversed. The introduction of electronic logging devices (ELDs) combined with an upswing in economic activity and a capacity shortage pushed freight rates to record levels. Carriers became very selective in allocating their capacity. Manufacturers and distributors were advised to become “Shippers of Choice.”

Carriers gave preference to shippers whose facilities were “driver friendly,” whose loads and paperwork were ready in a timely manner, who moved loads to preferred locations, and who paid top dollar. Shippers that wished to maintain consistent, reliable capacity and service were encouraged to establish “core carrier” programs at “carrier friendly” rates. They were told to pay the newly elevated rates to protect their supply chains.

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The subject of rising freight transportation costs has come up on the earnings calls and quarterly reports of almost every publicly traded manufacturer and retailer in 2018. This has been a very challenging year as many transportation expense budgets were shattered by a host of variables including a driver shortage, the ELD mandate and a surging economy.

The financial impact of rapidly rising freight costs caught large numbers of CEOs and CFOs by surprise. Many companies were unprepared for the capacity challenges and financial impacts that took place. Freight transportation expenses are typically in the range of 1 to 5% of sales. This changed in 2018. Suddenly the team that oversees these expenses, and the processes they manage, came under more scrutiny than ever before.

Economists are predicting solid economic growth in 2019 but not quite at the pace of 2018. What can CEOs do to protect their supply chains, the service to their customers, and their profits from further freight cost shock treatments in 2019? Here is a checklist to consider.

1. Eliminate Inefficient and Wasteful Practices

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In my last blog, I identified one of the recurring problems we encounter in working with shippers on a day to day basis, namely a lack of complete and accurate information on their freight transportation activities and expenses. I would argue that “you cannot manage what you cannot measure.” Good quality freight data is an essential component in the management of freight transportation.

Detailed, quality freight spend data can allow shippers to identify consolidation opportunities, to address chronic operational inefficiencies that result in excess or accessorial costs, to highlight “maverick” spend (e.g. higher cost carriers being used that are not listed in routing guide), to rectify the use of non-core carriers or more expensive modes and/or to create opportunities to construct more efficient routes and round trips. Shippers with poor quality and/or inaccurate freight cost data place themselves in a vulnerable position. Here are some steps that shippers can take to address this shortcoming and improve their profitability.

1. Build a Quality Freight Spend Data Base

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For the past 15 years, my colleagues and I have been working with shippers throughout North America to help them save money on freight transportation. In 2018, this cost has hit the radar screens of CEOs, as the tightness in freight capacity has placed upward pressure on freight rates. Many shippers have been experiencing rate increases in the high single digits and even double digits. Some CEOs have been highlighting the impact of freight costs during their quarterly investor calls and earnings reports.

A company’s freight costs often represent between two and ten percent of total revenues. For many companies in the manufacturing, distribution and retail sectors, their expenditures on freight have a direct and significant impact on their companies’ bottom lines.

Twelve years ago, I wrote a blog on this topic. In that blog, I identified one of the consistent problems we encounter in working with shippers on a day to day basis, namely a lack of complete and accurate information on their freight transportation activities. Twelve years later, this problem persists, and it is not limited to small companies. In fact, many companies with freight expenditures of five to fifty million dollars or more face the same problem.

“You can’t manage what you cannot measure.” Good quality freight data is an essential starting point in the management of freight transportation.

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In last week’s blog, I highlighted the tight freight capacity being experienced across North America (https://dantranscon.com/index.php/blog?view=entry&id=310 ), and that it is likely to continue for another year or two. For shippers that are experiencing shortages of trucking or rail equipment, there is a series of steps that need to be taken to prevent service failures and loss of market share. Here is a link to some blogs I wrote on this topic last summer (https://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/shippers-need-to-become-more-carrier-friendly-to-minimize-freight-rate-increases and https://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/two-keys-to-maintaining-truck-capacity-this-winter ).

The following are some additional steps to take to become a Preferred Shipper.

1. Integrate a Freight Transportation Strategy into the company’s Business Plan

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The New Year has started off with a bang. With the stock market at record levels, unemployment at historic lows in Canada and the United States and a new U.S. tax bill that promises to put extra dollars in the hands of American purchasers, it is not surprising that consumer confidence is at a high. The strong GDP numbers reflect that people are spending money again. It is no wonder that the Dow Transportation index is also at record levels (https://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/07/01/dow-jones-transportation-average-close-to-record-high/ ). This is great news for trucking companies.

December was also a historic month for the trucking industry. The electronic logging device (ELD) mandate took effect at the end of December. This measure which is designed to increase driver safety, is projected to restrict the availability of truck capacity in the United States. Of course, a driver shortage has already made capacity tight. Companies that comply with the mandate must work within specific time windows. Those that don’t conform to the mandate risk being pulled off the road, over time, as compliance becomes stricter.

The result is that freight rates are projected to increase in 2018. In a letter to customers (https://www.sdcexec.com/warehousing/news/12371547/jb-hunt-tells-customers-to-budget-for-10-percent-cost-increase ), JB Hunt suggested that freight rates may increase by as much as ten percent or more. At the Surface Transportation Summit held in Toronto in October 2017, John Larkin, Managing Director of Research, Stifel Financial Corp. shared the following rate increase projections with the audience.

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We have been hearing about the possibility of a trucking capacity shortage for several years. While there have been sporadic shortages in specific geographic areas, for particular modes, the predicted massive shortage never materialized. This year may be different.

Two major hurricanes caused major damage to homes and infrastructure in Texas, Florida and adjoining areas. Drivers and trucks are required in these areas to transport building materials, appliances, electric grids, and other needed supplies. Some drivers will likely take construction jobs to aid with the rebuilding effort and increase their earnings.

The economies of Canada and the United States are in good shape with historically low unemployment and solid GDP growth. Then there is the Electronic Logging (ELD) Device mandate that will restrict the utilization of some trucks and push some drivers out of the industry. This unique confluence of variables is likely to make an already tight capacity situation even tighter.

What can shippers do to secure the capacity they need to keep their supply chains flowing and serve their customers? Here are two suggestions.

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As the long, slow recovery from the Great Recession continues, shippers and carriers have become used to modest economic growth. Demand for freight services has been steady but not robust. The muted demand for freight services has not put undo pressure on truck capacity; rate increases have been limited in recent years. This may be about to change.

Regulations have placed constraints on the management of trucking companies, particularly full load carriers. The Hours of Service regulations coupled with the ELD (electronic logging device) mandate are placing limits on the number of hours that a driver can legally operate a truck. These directives limit truck capacity. The difficulties in finding quality drivers and the high turnover ratio among current drivers provides additional challenges for many truck fleets. To address the potential erosion in capacity, truckers are applying a variety of technologies.

Good quality transportation management systems are allowing truckers to better manage their routes and balance their lanes. Dimensional scanners are helping LTL carriers manage the space available on their trailers by matching freight rates to cube utilization. ELD technology provides carriers with information on how long their drivers and equipment are held up at customers’ facilities. The net result of all this is that small parcel, LTL and truckload carriers can be much more accurate in tailoring their freight rates to the “carrier friendliness” of their clients.

How can shippers become more "carrier friendly”?  Here are a few items to consider.

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Much of the work we do at Dan Goodwill & Associates starts with a phone call or e-mail from a President, CFO or Vice President of Logistics or Transportation. One of the first questions that we are asked is can your firm help us reduce our freight costs.

The answer is usually yes. Unfortunately, we are not able to wave a magic wand. Effective freight cost management comes from taking some concrete steps. Here they are.

Centralized Command and Control

Many of our clients have grown through acquisition and/or organically. They have manufacturing and distribution facilities in multiple locations. These sites are often managed individually by local logistics managers who each use a set of preferred carriers. By not consolidating shipments, by moving LTL freight daily and by using a variety of carriers, they sub-optimize on freight cost management.

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A little over a year ago, I wrote a blog entitled “How do you know when it is time to conduct a freight bid?” (http://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/how-do-you-know-when-it-is-time-to-conduct-a-freight-bid ). In that blog, I outlined a set of general conditions that shippers can use as a guide to reach this decision point. Half way through the first quarter of 2017, I find myself thinking about this issue again. Here’s why.

The stock markets in North America are hitting record levels on an almost daily basis. Usually this is a sign of good economic times ahead. The US Consumer Confidence Index in December of 113.7, reached its highest level since 2001, a sure sign that people are ready to open their wallets and buy things. The National Purchasing Manager’s Index increased to 54.7% in December 2016, an increase of 150 basis points over the previous month and the 91st consecutive month for growth in the overall US economy.

The Shippers Conditions Index for October 2016 increased to a neutral reading of 0.4. FTR, an American transportation consulting service, expects that shippers will see a couple more months of neutral market conditions before they may be impacted in the latter half of 2017. The impact would in part be due to potential capacity issues stemming from the Electronic Logging Device (ELD) implementation scheduled for the end of 2017.

ACT Research’s For-Hire Trucking Index sees freight rising faster than capacity, increasing the gap to levels not observed since 2014. January freight volumes for TransCore’s Link Logistics continue an upward trend after a surge in freight volume in December 2016. Although the record for highest load volumes for January was set in 2014, last month’s load volumes are the second highest recorded for the month of January, and compared to last year load volumes have leaped 43% year-over-year.

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The subject of online freight bids and internet freight auctions came up a few times at the Surface Transportation Summit that took place in Toronto on October 13. The carriers that raised this topic spoke of the high volume and poor quality of bids that have been hitting the transportation industry this year. One carrier was so fed up with the internet auctions in which they were participating that they made a decision to opt out of them.

It is clear that where there is a market opportunity, there are a multitude of companies that are seeking to meet the needs of unsuspecting shippers. It was apparent from the carrier comments that there are a number of unqualified or underqualified, unprofessional providers, some with very limited expertise, who are providing an unsatisfactory service to their customers and a disservice to the industry. These are some of the issues that were brought to light.

There are bids on the market where the carrier is being asked to quote on 6000 lanes of traffic, a massive undertaking. In one case, the carrier was provided with shipment data that stated that there are 1600 truckloads of freight that move on a particular lane each year. The carrier that is the incumbent, looked at their data and noticed that they move only 160 LTL shipments on the particular lane each year.

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Some large LTL carriers have announced rates increases this fall. Old Dominion, XPO Logistics, YRC Freight and UPS Freight have all declared 4.9 percent GRI rate increases on non-contract LTL freight that took effect in September. In survey after survey, shippers have claimed that cross reductions are their number one priority. How can these two conflicting strategies be resolved?

It is important for LTL shippers to realize that LTL carriers are serious about making these increases stick. Despite somewhat muted demand for LTL service, carriers are making a determined effort to secure these increases.

One of the major reasons for the focus and discipline is balanced capacity. Most of the large LTL carriers shrank their networks considerably in the aftermath of the 2008-09 recession. As a result, there’s not a lot, if any, excess LTL capacity. Yield management is the priority this year. With limited capacity, there is little value in triggering a price war. A race to the bottom does little to help carriers raise their margins. LTL carriers are looking at their margins per lane and per account and taking action on contracted and non-contracted freight to improve yields. What can shippers do to mitigate these GRI increases?

For companies that have significant volumes of freight, they can put their business out for bid, leverage their volumes and sign multi-year contracts with minimal rate increases in subsequent years. There are a number of Best Practices that can be employed to make your freight bid a productive process (http://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/freight-bid-tip-1-obtain-buy-in-and-participation-from-the-operating-divisions ). For shippers that routinely do this on an annual or bi-annual basis, there are other avenues to pursue.

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The first blog in this series looked at the money saving opportunities for organizations that take control of Inbound Transportation. This blog will outline a series of steps that need to be taken to make this happen.

A Commitment to Act

In the last blog, it was highlighted that some vendors place a mark-up on their outbound freight costs (viz. your company’s inbound freight expenses) and pass it on to their customers. It is important for every company that receives inbound freight to understand the following.

A trucking company adds a mark-up to their costs in order to come up with their freight rates. A freight broker and/or logistics service provider will take the carrier’s rate and add another mark-up. In other words, by the time you receive shipments from your vendors, they may have from two to four mark-ups added to the basic cost.

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b2ap3_thumbnail_dreamstime_xl_9421932.jpgManaging Inbound Freight is often overlooked or not optimally managed as an opportunity for cost savings in many companies. This is a conclusion we have come to after working with a range of companies and industries over the past 13 years. When we are invited to meet with a manufacturer or distributor of freight, the priority is usually finding cost savings on outbound freight, not inbound freight. This seems to be the result of several factors.

First, many companies are not able to determine how much they are paying for inbound freight. Freight costs are often embedded in the “landed cost” of the products; the actual freight cost component is not identified. Many companies have poor visibility into their inbound freight activity.

Second, some companies don’t care about their inbound freight costs. They take the landed cost of their inbound shipments and add a markup. They are satisfied with this approach.

Third, some companies are concerned about upsetting their vendors by asking them what they pay for freight. These companies may be very dependent on certain vendors for specific products and have a perception that by engaging in a dialogue on freight costs, an area that the vendor has historically managed on their own, this may encourage the vendor to give priority to other customers. In some situations there is the perception that because the vendor is a large company, they are able to negotiate better rates than the manufacturer receiving the goods.

Fourth, companies often have a Transportation or Logistics Manager who is responsible for outbound freight; inbound freight is managed, unmanaged or mismanaged separately by the purchasing/procurement department. Shippers who take charge of Inbound Freight Transportation can achieve savings in a number of areas.

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b2ap3_thumbnail_Sample-Routing-GuideV1_20160429-193844_1.jpgMany shippers don’t achieve the cost savings they expect from their freight bid exercises. This can happen despite the time, energy and costs that go into these projects. Based on our work with shippers over the past twelve years, these are the main reasons why this happens.

A Failure to Provide Full Disclosure of Requirements and Expectations

As a prelude to the execution of a freight bid, shippers are required to gather and document the scope of their freight transportation requirements. For carriers to bid properly on a shipper’s freight, this goes well beyond volumes, lanes and transit times. Carriers need to understand everything about the pick-up, linehaul and delivery operations. Unfortunately, this does not always happen. The omission of certain requirements can lead to erroneous carrier selections and turmoil after the bid has been completed and the freight has been awarded. Here is one example.

Some shippers require early morning (i.e. 7:30 AM) deliveries. Not all LTL carriers are able to supply this service in all locations on a consistent basis. If carriers are not informed of this requirement in the RFP and then expected to meet this requirement in certain locations after the bid has been awarded, this can lead to service failures and pressure to bring back the incumbent (s).

A Failure to Gain Buy-In and Support from all Divisions and Sister Companies

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A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a blog about the new pricing processes that LTL (and small parcel) carriers are employing to improve the profitability of their operations. I noted that freight carriers are emulating some of the activities that have been undertaken by the airlines such as dynamic pricing (i.e. adjusting rates based on time of day and day of the week) to increase yields on their freight activities.

Similar to the airlines, in recent years, LTL carriers have become more focused and aggressive in seeking payment for additional services (that have distinctive cost elements) that have been offered at no charge or at less than full cost recovery in the past. Many carriers have been focusing on inefficient shipper practices or administratively costly tasks that drive up their costs. They have been turning to their customers to compensate them.

In this blog, I will provide a set of questions that shippers should ask themselves and their customers to understand the current shipping processes that are precipitating accessorial charges and the costs that are being incurred. In the next blog, I will provide some general practices that shippers can employ to mitigate these costs.

Why do Accessorial Charges Exist?

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