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This has clearly been the year of the large M & A deal in the freight industry with TFII’s purchase of UPS’ LTL business (https://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/the-first-big-transportation-deal-of-the-year-tfii-s-purchase-of-ups-freight ) followed by Knight Swift’s acquisition of LTL operator AAA Cooper Transportation (https://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/why-are-large-ltl-trucking-companies-such-attractive-m-a-targets ). The Uber Freight purchase of Transplace for $2.25 billion is different from the other two acquisitions.

Unlike the prior mergers that combined two asset-based trucking companies, this merger blends two non-asset-based technology-driven freight brokerage operations. Uber Freight supplies shippers with real-time quoting and booking, using their freight management platform; it provides access to a network of US and Canadian-based carriers. Their focus has been on a transactional, instant gratification shipper-carrier load matching services. While still unprofitable, they have been achieving rapid growth in this segment of the freight brokerage market.

Transplace, while also in the freight brokerage space, has focused on large shippers with consistent freight volumes. Their technology is designed to marry this class of shipper with carriers that have the capacity and coverage to handle recurring traffic in designated areas. This is much more of a contracted business rather than a transactional business model. Transplace states on its website that it counts 62,000 unique users and has $11 billion of freight under management.

So, what made Transplace attractive to Uber Freight? Uber Freight is paying 22 .5 times EBITDA to acquire a company that has a current EBITDA run rate of over $100 million. This is a steep multiple, but Transplace’s earnings will improve the financials of the merged Uber Freight.

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Fifty-one days after taking office, President Biden signed into law the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Relief Bill, one of the most important pieces of legislation in the past 50 years. The bill is significant in many ways.

It will put money directly into the hands of lower- and middle-income Americans, those most in need of support. The bill directs $1,400 payouts to millions of Americans and continues unemployment checks for millions more as the country pulls itself out of the economic devastation of a pandemic that has killed more than 530,000 of its citizens. As itemized by Eric Levitz in New York magazine, the bill will have a broad range of impacts.

• A family of four with one working parent and one unemployed one will have $12,460 more in government benefits to help them make ends meet.

• The poorest single mothers in America will receive at least $3,000 more per child in government support, along with $1,400 for themselves and additional funds for nutritional assistance and rental aid.

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Crafting a Pandemic Recovery Plan

Posted by on in Crisis Management

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There is considerable euphoria in the trucking industry these days. The July 2020 issue of Broughton Capital Truck Freight Barometers® is entitled “Fasten Your Seatbelts! The Economy & Truck Marketplace are Poised to Surprise to the Upside.” The issue contains the following thoughts.

“In all three modes, the Broughton Capital Truck Freight Barometers® are reflecting an environment in which demand exceeds capacity by a significant margin . . . the underlying fundamentals have never improved this dramatically in such a short period of time. The rapid, intense improvement runs counter to typical seasonality, making the gains even more impressive. Normally, July demand is softer than June . . . This year's Q3 trends, however, are shaping up to be exceptional in every way.” The report goes on to say the following.

“Consistent with our very bullish outlook for the U.S. domestic economy, the demand side of the equation is expanding robustly. Meanwhile, the capacity side of the equation has been constrained, which magnifies the imbalance and contributes to an extraordinary surge in spot rates. Today's spot rate levels are poised to exceed contract rates. As spot rates had fallen in April to record low levels, both nominally and in terms of the gap between spot and contract rates, the meteoric rise in spot rates over the last 13 weeks has been even more spectacular.”

Similarly, the Morgan Stanley Freight (MSFI) Index “has improved sequentially and outperformed seasonality for the 7th time in a row . . . On absolute terms, the index now sits at the highest level for mid-August in over a decade . . . Our straight-line forecast now projects 2020 ending the year nearly on par with 2017 levels, the highest YE level on record.” There is encouraging news on the Covid-19 front. This week reported new cases of the virus in the United States have dropped into the 30,000 to 40,000 range and reported deaths have dropped into the 400 to 500 range. Do these numbers signal a strong fall and winter season for the North American freight transportation industry? Here are a few thoughts to consider.

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As we watch the Covid-19 pandemic unfold, in real time, on our television and computer screens, we are observing major weaknesses in many of our essential institutions. Despite the warning from China at the beginning of this year, North Americans were unprepared for this pandemic. Before it even began, pandemic readiness work triggered by HIV and SARS epidemics had already been abandoned or scaled back for political rather than health concerns, leaving all of us vulnerable. Then there was a failure of the U.S. president to listen to the warning signals, to take responsibility for this crisis, to activate policies to produce protective equipment, to implement a national stay at home policy, and to ensure there were adequate tests to identify those who have Covid-19 and those who do not.

Our health care systems were overwhelmed by a lack of planning and resources. Our grocery and household goods supply chains were not ready for the huge upswing in online shopping and for the surge in demand for many items.

The result of these failures is that the United States is now the epicenter of the virus. Canada is also being hit hard. The pandemic is forcing millions of Canadians and Americans, other than those designated as providing essential services, to say at home to help reduce the spread of Covid-19. This necessary policy is causing the ongoing shutdown of many businesses and a loss of millions of jobs. As outlined in this article in Foreign Policy (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/09/unemployment-coronavirus-pandemic-normal-economy-is-never-coming-back/), the “normal economy is never coming back.”

We are already seeing significant changes in our everyday lives. Many of us are becoming proficient at meeting with our family, friends and colleagues via a video conference. This trend will likely become more prevalent in our business lives after the crisis. Many people are becoming more skilled at purchasing groceries and supplies online and are taking the opportunity to upgrade their abilities in banking from home, home schooling, personal fitness, hair cutting and in a variety of other areas.

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2019 in Review

After the hot freight market and record profits of 2018, many trucking companies added trucks and drivers to keep up with the expected shippers’ capacity demands in 2019. An index published by the Institute for Supply Management dropped to 47.2 in December, the lowest reading since June 2009 and the fifth straight month of contraction. A reading below 50 indicates the manufacturing sector is contracting. In 2019, excess truck capacity was met with a “manufacturing recession.”

One key trade flow indicator that maritime experts and world economists examine, is the volume of the eastbound trans-Pacific trade lane — the regional trade lane for ocean containers that originate in East Asia and end in the United States. This trade lane accounts for 40% of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP).

The flow of containers in this trade lane has marked a plunge in weakening relations. U.S. exports out of the Port of Los Angeles (the end of the lane) is down 12 consecutive months. China imports have dropped significantly. The ripple effect of this change not only hit the maritime system but the trucking and rail systems as well since there was less freight to move.

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From a Freight Transportation perspective, the past two years have been among the most tumultuous in decades. Throughout 2018, an economic surge, a shortage of qualified drivers, and the implementation of the ELD mandate in the United States, created a shortage of freight capacity, particularly in the truckload sector. Shippers struggled to find trucks to move their loads.

To address these shortfalls, many shippers were forced to pay significantly higher rates, establish dedicated fleets and/or change their freight operations to become a “Shipper of Choice.” Rather than simply tender their loads, shippers were advised to become more “carrier friendly.” This encompassed a range of activities.

Becoming a “Shipper of Choice”

Shippers learned that they could improve their chances of securing needed truck space by giving carriers advance notice of a pending surge in business volumes. Another way to improve carrier relations was to help fleets keep their trucks on the road, rather than sitting in warehouse yards or at loading docks. To avoid carrier detention fees for long waits, shippers and receivers were encouraged to improve appointment scheduling and freight loading / unloading processes.

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These are the major developments shaping the freight transportation industry in North America in the second half of 2019.

1. We are entering a period of Economic Uncertainty

Despite a climate of record low unemployment levels, low inflation, a positive ISM manufacturing index and other encouraging economic indicators, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates on July 31 by a quarter point, the first such rate reduction since 2008. This action is being framed as a precautionary measure to protect the United States from slowing growth in China and Europe, and from uncertainty over President Trump’s trade war. The fact is that this unpredictability is beginning to weigh on business investment in the United States and abroad. Shippers and carriers should closely monitor the key economic indicators to assess whether this and possible other rate cuts will sustain the decade long economic expansion or ease the impact of an approaching downturn or recession.

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There are approximately 540,000 truckload carriers registered with the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration in the United States. These range from 1 truck to 20,000 truck fleets. The majority have less than 20 pieces of equipment in their fleets. These companies generated approximately $350 billion in revenue in 2018.

Revenue/Tonnage Growth in 2018

Here is a link to the top 50 truckload carriers in the United States and Canada that are listed in Transport Topics (https://www.ttnews.com/top100/tl/2018). Swift Transportation, Schneider National, Landstar System, J.B. Hunt Transportation Services, and Penske Logistics are the five largest US based truckload carriers; TFI (formerly TransForce International), Mullen Group, Canada Cartage, Bison Transport and Challenger Motor Freight are Canada’s largest truckload operators. It should be noted that TFI that has its head office in Canada now derives a significant share of its revenues from the United States.

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Are We Heading Into Another Freight Recession?

Posted by on in Economy

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 Global Economic Outlook

Early this month, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its outlook for growth in the United States, Europe, Japan and the overall global economy and pointed to heightened trade tensions as a key reason. U.S. trade talks with China continue without resolution, and there are indications that the rate of Chinese economic growth is slowing. The IMF expects the world economy to grow 3.3% this year, down from 3.6% in 2018. That would match 2016 for the weakest year since 2009. In its previous forecast in January, the IMF had predicted that international growth would reach 3.5% this year.

U.S. Economic Outlook

Economists expect U.S. first-quarter growth to decelerate less than previously thought even as they cut forecasts for the rest of the year, projecting a second-quarter rebound will fade as the effects of tax cuts wane. The median estimate for growth in the first three months of the year increased to 1.6% from 1.5% seen last month, according to an April 5-10 Bloomberg News survey. At the same time, forecasts for the second quarter held at 2.6% while those for the third edged down to 2.2% and were lower for the fourth, at 2%.

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Over the past few years, one of the defining challenges in the freight transportation industry has been a shortage of qualified drivers. In April of this year, I posted a blog (https://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/what-are-trucking-companies-doing-to-solve-the-driver-shortage ) that examined the range of compensation tools and benefits that are being offered to recruit and retain drivers. In another blog (https://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/trying-to-solve-the-driver-shortage-try-paying-them-a-salary ), I suggested that some trucking companies should consider paying, at least some of their drivers, an hourly rate or salary. The following are some additional compensation schemes that carriers are employing and a few thoughts on the effectiveness of these programs.

Multiple Pay Increases in the same year

To stay competitive, some carriers are providing their drivers with multiple pay increases to ensure they stay on par with the competition.

Payment for Practical Miles

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Those of us who came into the freight transportation industry in the 80s and 90s remember when there were distinct sets of service providers. There were small parcel carriers, LTL carriers, full truckload service providers and rail carload operators. Of course, during slow times, truckload carriers would move some large LTL shipments. The small parcel carriers targeted shipments in the low end of the LTL freight sector. Even back in the 80s. truckload consolidations (of multiple LTL shipments) were popular in certain industry segments (i.e. auto parts). However, these four labels were a pretty good reflection of the major types of transportation services available at that time. Companies in each of these segments had a unique core competence and tended to operate in their area of expertise.

Today, Transport Topics and other journals still publish lists of the top 100 truckload carriers and top 50 LTL carriers. However, when you examine the business activities of a number of companies in each sector, you realize that these labels no longer fit well with the diversity of services that many trucking companies currently provide.

As an example, JB Hunt has been known for years as one of the premier truckload carriers in North America. At one point in time, this was a very accurate description of this company. However, when you examine the revenue of this company, over-the-road truckload freight now represents only five percent of the total. Through a focused business strategy and organic growth, intermodal transportation, dedicated fleet movements and freight management now make up the bulk of their business.

XPO Logistics, through their acquisition of Conway, has $3.6 billion in LTL revenues and now ranks third in the rankings of LTL carriers. This company, well known for its large logistics operation, now has a strong presence in two of the major sectors of the freight transportation industry.

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After a tumultuous 2017, the New Year is shaping up to be an eventful and momentous year for Freight Transportation. These are a few of the trends to watch in 2018.

Trump Year 2 - the Sophomore Jinx and Crisis Management

America and the world have lived through year one of an American rookie politician and president. It was painful and disruptive with few solid accomplishments to point to. There is little consensus on the financial impact of the Tax Reform bill that was passed, Trump’s one big legislative achievement.

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A few years ago, I wrote a blog about some of the major changes that were and still are shaping the world of Sales (http://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/does-your-trucking-company-still-need-an-outside-sales-force ). In that blog, I suggested that economics, technology, and customer requirements were raising questions about the value proposition of an in-house sales team in the freight transportation industry.

A few days ago, I read an article posted by the Business Guru Club (https://businessguruclub.info/outsourced-sales-management-how-does-it-work/ ) that made the argument that Sales is a functional area like Accounting. Companies can benefit by outsourcing their Sales operation as they do their Accounting activities to a for-hire third party.

“For small businesses trying to launch their own sales department can be very difficult, time consuming and above all – risky. If sales don’t start to come in and you have to dismiss staff a lot of time and money has been wasted and this could break the business.”

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Freight matching services or “freight exchanges” have become one of the hottest topics in Freight Transportation over the past few years. Venture capital funds, private investors and others have poured at least $200 million — and potentially substantially more — into dozens of on-demand freight start-ups, including Flexport, Transfix, Loadsmart, Convoy, Doft, Cargo Chief, TugForce, HaulHound, Parade, Ship Lync, Load Surfer, FreightCenter, Freight Finder, Freightera, Freightcom, Pickmyload and others. There are new companies entering this space on a nearly daily basis.

Uber, the controversial but successful online taxi app, has recently announced that it is entering the freight matching arena. What is the attraction?

A brief history of freight matching services

DAT (which is an abbreviation for Dial-A-Truck) was the original load board in North America that was created in 1978. TruckersEdge was founded after DAT and was acquired by TransCore in 1992, another internet pioneer in load board services. Truckstop.com and Getloaded.com were launched in the early 2000s. In 2001, DAT was purchased by TransCore. In 2004, TransCore was acquired by Roper Technologies. In 2014, TransCore DAT became DAT Solutions. For four decades, this group of companies has been offering, for a fee, a process for shippers and brokers to post loads that need to be moved and for carriers to highlight available capacity.

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Donald Trump. Robotics. Omni-Channel Fulfillment. The New NAFTA. Freight Marketplaces. Autonomous Vehicles. The Internet of Things. Andrew Scheer. Brexit. Climate Change. Last-Mile Delivery. Legalized Marijuana. E-commerce. Emmanuel Macron. The Amazon Effect. Drones. Digital Freight Management. Uber. Clean Energy. This is just a partial list of the major forces shaping the world of Freight Transportation in 2017.

This year's Surface Transportation Summit (www.surfacetransportationsummit.com) will focus on the strategies and tactics that shippers and carriers can employ to address these forces. The event will take place at the International Centre in Toronto on October 11. This is a joint venture between Newcom Business Media and Dan Goodwill & Associates with the support of the Freight Management Association of Canada and the Canadian Trucking Alliance. Northbridge Insurance will be the Gold sponsor, with Navistar, Volvo Trucks and Isaac Instruments, the silver sponsors and Trailer Wizards, the bronze sponsor.

In a year when political and economic alliances, new technologies and environmental policies are changing rapidly, the Summit will provide strategies and tactics to address these forces.  Here is an overview of the agenda and speakers.

The first track is entitled, The Donald Trump Effect and The Economy in 2018: What trends will impact your business? Carlos Gomes, Senior Economist with Scotiabank, will share data on the Key Economic Indicators for 2017 and then provide his insights into the economy in the New Year. John Larkin, one of America’s foremost transportation industry analysts, will share his thoughts on the some of the most important developments in the US transportation industry. Walter Spracklin, Equity Transportation Analyst, RBC Capital Markets, will provide his insights on the Canadian transportation industry.  Sylvie Messier, Corporate Transportation & Customs Manager, IPEX and Doug Munro, President and Owner, Maritime-Ontario Freight Lines Limited will share their thoughts on this topic in a panel discussion.

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The freight brokerage industry has been near and dear to my heart for many years. Earlier in my career, I had the privilege of running one of Canada’s largest 3PL operations. My current company has had the distinct pleasure of consulting with some of North America’s finest freight brokers. Periodically I like to look at the changes that are taking place in this industry. In previous years, I have published blogs (http://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/technology-comes-to-the-freight-brokerage-industry-in-2016 ) on the impact on technology in the freight brokerage industry. Times have changed.

Technology is no longer a driving force in this industry. It is THE DRIVING FORCE. This year we are witnessing the application of technology to every facet of the business. This industry has been discovered by venture capitalists, entrepreneurs, truckers, software, and hardware providers. Software innovations are entering the industry at a very rapid pace. This blog will feature a range of companies that are at the forefront of transforming the industry.

Find an App

Posting a shipment has never been easier. Friendshippr.com (http://friendshippr.com/) turns your Facebook friends into a shipping network. The Friendshippr app, available on Google Play, or from Apple store, is a simple tool to move goods between your Facebook friends.

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b2ap3_thumbnail_Estes---Saia_20170407-192111_1.jpgThe big news on the LTL scene in Canada over the past few weeks has been the severing of ties between Estes Express, the number 14 ranked carrier (on the Transport Topics list) in the United States and TST Overland Express, a large Ontario-based LTL carrier that is one of the major divisions of TFI International (formerly known as TransForce), Canada’s giant trucking conglomerate. This is a partnership that has endured for many years.

Estes Express Lines will be teaming up with two regional Canadian less-than-truckload carriers to offer LTL freight services to Canada under an Estes freight bill. Estes will be working with Speedy Transport of Brampton, Ontario, and Pacific Coast Express Ltd. (a division of the Landtran Group) of Surrey, British Columbia, to offer Estes Canada service. The new alliance will start May 22, according to Estes.

The company stated that U.S. shippers will work with only one carrier, Estes, from pickup to delivery, and all freight will be delivered on an Estes delivery receipt. In effect, Speedy Transport and Pacific Coast Express will become agents of Estes. When asked what drove the need for Estes to convert its Canadian service to a direct model, Ed Alderman, Vice President, International and Offshore Sales for Estes, said Estes wants customers to have the same quality Estes customer service experience from shipment to delivery as they have come to depend on domestically.

As reported in Transport Topics, Estes said it is forming dedicated account teams in Canada to provide the same service level that U.S. customers receive. Freight will move across the border in Estes pup trailers equipped with captive beams and Estes’ proprietary Webb walls. This direct method of cross-border shipping is meant to reduce handling of freight and decrease risk of damage, the company said.

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Last week I wrote about the consolidation that is taking place in the freight transportation industry in Canada. Thank you for the many positive comments and feedback. I hope the blog has stimulated some thought about the level of competition in the industry, in view of its domination by some very large players.

One of my longstanding colleagues in the industry, who runs an independent transportation operation in Canada, reminded me that there are a range of very fine companies that compete with the industry giants. As a follow-up to last week’s blog, I thought I would provide an overview of the competition in each sector.

As a starting point, I went back over the top 100 for hire fleets in 2016 as published in Today’s Trucking. They range from Canada’s largest trucking fleet, TFI (TransForce International) with over 26,000 pieces of equipment and almost 25,000 employees to the 100th largest company, Transport Matte, with 321 pieces of equipment and 135 employees. It should be noted that there is a steep falloff after you go from TFI to even the second-place carrier, Mullen Group, that has 13, 645 pieces of equipment and 4410 employees. Clearly, TFI is in a class by itself with not just the most trucks but with by far the largest number of fleets under one roof.

The other big fleets highlighted in the previous blog (i.e. Manitoulin, Day & Ross, Mullen) have also grown disproportionately large through a combination of organic growth and/or acquisition. A glance through the top 100 list displays a range of companies, large and small. So let’s take a look at the major freight transport sectors in Canada.

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The subject of online freight bids and internet freight auctions came up a few times at the Surface Transportation Summit that took place in Toronto on October 13. The carriers that raised this topic spoke of the high volume and poor quality of bids that have been hitting the transportation industry this year. One carrier was so fed up with the internet auctions in which they were participating that they made a decision to opt out of them.

It is clear that where there is a market opportunity, there are a multitude of companies that are seeking to meet the needs of unsuspecting shippers. It was apparent from the carrier comments that there are a number of unqualified or underqualified, unprofessional providers, some with very limited expertise, who are providing an unsatisfactory service to their customers and a disservice to the industry. These are some of the issues that were brought to light.

There are bids on the market where the carrier is being asked to quote on 6000 lanes of traffic, a massive undertaking. In one case, the carrier was provided with shipment data that stated that there are 1600 truckloads of freight that move on a particular lane each year. The carrier that is the incumbent, looked at their data and noticed that they move only 160 LTL shipments on the particular lane each year.

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On September 23rd, Logistics Management hosted a webinar at which time the co-authors of the annual Masters in Logistics study presented their major findings. For 25 years, this study has been gathering data from a large sample of shippers and carriers across various levels of spend and size. The three presenters, Karl B. Manrodt, Ph. D., Professor, Georgia College, Mary Holcomb, Ph. D., Professor, University of Tennessee and Tommy Barnes, President, Project 44, highlighted some major changes taking place in Freight Transportation.

E-Commerce is changing the Freight Spend Allocation across various Modes

In 2015, 21.9 percent of freight costs were spent on over the road truckload shipping while 21.7 percent were spent on LTL shipping. In 2016, these percentages declined to 17.8 percent for truckload and 15.0 percent LTL freight. Surface Parcel (i.e. FedEx Ground, UPS) increased year/year from 6.1 percent to 11.5 percent. Small parcel freight volumes increased by one percent. In another area of the study, the researchers revealed that 10 percent of freight shipments move from a DC direct to consumer while 21 percent now moves direct from a plant direct to consumer. This further reinforces the impact that E-Commerce and omni-channel marketing are having on freight activity.

Organization Structures are adapting to Market Dynamics

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