These are distressing times for Canadians. Despite numerous meetings between the Canadian and U.S. (and Mexican) delegations over the past year, NAFTA negotiations reached another impasse on Friday, August 31. It is not surprising.

The Americans have negotiated in bad faith. Canada was excluded from the recent negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico. Rather than just negotiate the exchange of auto parts and minimum salaries for auto workers, the two parties reached an agreement on a much more extensive range of issues. Clearly the Americans sought to and succeeded in muscling the Mexicans into agreeing to a 2-way pact with them. The Mexicans were also not forthcoming in advising their Canadian counterparts of their intention to reach a multi-faceted two-party agreement with the Americans.

President Trump is threatening to apply a 25 percent tariff on auto parts manufactured in Canada if he doesn’t receive concessions on access to Canada’s dairy market, on a dispute settlement mechanism and an increase in the level of duty-free purchases. According to a John Holmes, a Queen’s University professor emeritus and research fellow at the Automotive Policy Research Centre (https://www.macleans.ca/economy/what-will-happen-if-trump-slaps-a-25-per-cent-tariff-on-canadian-made-cars/?utm_source=nl&utm_medium=em&utm_campaign=mme_weekly&utm_content=202508&utm_term=0&sfi=df0198bed6a37f0cdd34c52c77052eef ), the impact on Canada would be “disastrous.”

The oddity in applying these tariffs is that American consumers would be the first ones to feel the impact. According to industry analyst Dennis DesRosiers, president of DesRosiers Automotive Consultants, automakers would pay an extra $5,000-$7,000 for the vehicle they plan to sell. “Unless the auto companies chose to eat some of the extra costs, it would price most of those vehicles out of the marketplace,” DesRosiers says. “There’d be no choice for consumers.” Americans won’t be happy paying thousands extra for a Toyota RAV4 simply because it came from Canada—meaning the nearly 1.8 million vehicles Canada ships south of the border annually would have a much tougher time finding a home.

Those of us who came into the freight transportation industry in the 80s and 90s remember when there were distinct sets of service providers. There were small parcel carriers, LTL carriers, full truckload service providers and rail carload operators. Of course, during slow times, truckload carriers would move some large LTL shipments. The small parcel carriers targeted shipments in the low end of the LTL freight sector. Even back in the 80s. truckload consolidations (of multiple LTL shipments) were popular in certain industry segments (i.e. auto parts). However, these four labels were a pretty good reflection of the major types of transportation services available at that time. Companies in each of these segments had a unique core competence and tended to operate in their area of expertise.

Today, Transport Topics and other journals still publish lists of the top 100 truckload carriers and top 50 LTL carriers. However, when you examine the business activities of a number of companies in each sector, you realize that these labels no longer fit well with the diversity of services that many trucking companies currently provide.

As an example, JB Hunt has been known for years as one of the premier truckload carriers in North America. At one point in time, this was a very accurate description of this company. However, when you examine the revenue of this company, over-the-road truckload freight now represents only five percent of the total. Through a focused business strategy and organic growth, intermodal transportation, dedicated fleet movements and freight management now make up the bulk of their business.

XPO Logistics, through their acquisition of Conway, has $3.6 billion in LTL revenues and now ranks third in the rankings of LTL carriers. This company, well known for its large logistics operation, now has a strong presence in two of the major sectors of the freight transportation industry.

The following is my annual report on the state of the LTL Freight Industry in the United States and Canada. Here are links to the top 100 carriers in Canada (https://www.todaystrucking.com/top-100-ranking-canadas-largest-hire-fleets/ ) and the top 25 LTL carriers in the United States (https://www.logisticsmgmt.com/article/the_top_25_trucking_and_less_than_truckload_ltl_companies_in_2017 ). The combined revenue of the 25 largest U.S. LTL trucking companies remained unchanged at $31.8 billion in 2015 and 2016, according to The Journal of Commerce’s 2016 ranking of the Top 25 LTL Carriers, prepared by SJ Consulting Group. In 2017 annual revenues grew by 7.8% to $34.5 billion.

The Booming Freight Market of 2017 - 2018

Freight volumes are strong as we approach mid-year. Carriers, hampered by a lack of drivers and faced with new time constraints due to mandatory electronic logging devices (ELDs) in the United States, are increasingly being selective in picking the best-yielding freight for their freight lines. LTL carriers are picking up volume from the tightening TL market. Some large TL carriers started rejecting lighter loads of 5,000 pounds to 10,000 pounds earlier this year, and that freight is now moving via LTL carriers. The net result is LTL freight base rates are soaring with some experts projecting increases of 4 to 5 percent or more. In addition, LTL carriers are doing a better job quoting accurate dimensional pricing and accessorial charges which also places upward pressure on rates. This environment will likely continue for the remainder of this year.

The LTL Industry remains a Non-Union “Big Boys” Game

Under the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration rules in the United States, that came into effect on Dec. 18, 2017, most trucks built after 2000 had to be equipped with an ELD (Electronic Logging Device). Fleets already using older electronic onboard recorders are grandfathered until December 2019.

The CCMTA (Canadian Council of Motor Transport Administrators) is coming forward with a Canadian ELD Mandate proposal. The Canadian ELD rules will closely mirror the US mandate to keep cross-border regulations consistent.

Regardless of when the Canadian government publishes the final rule on ELDs, which will likely be within the next year, any driver operating a commercial motor vehicle south of the border is already required to follow U.S. Hours of Service rules and regulations. Canadian carriers that make cross-border deliveries were also required to have an ELD solution by the December 2017 deadline.

This is a year that shippers have been dreading. Increased demand, from retailers looking to restock after the holidays and from manufacturers, has made it harder for companies to book transportation, particularly on short notice. Prices have also risen due to bad weather, a new U.S. federal trucking safety rule, truck and driver shortages and diesel prices that are around a three-year high. For shippers that play the spot market, double digit rate increases are becoming the norm.

This was the subject of a feature story in a recent issue of the Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com/articles/rising-freight-costs-are-weighing-on-companies-profits-1517521490 ). A number of U.S. companies told investors that rising shipping costs in recent months have cut into earnings. Many manufacturers and retailers throughout North America spend millions of dollars a year on freight transportation.

Freight costs can represent between 1 and 10 percent of a company’s operating revenue, one of the largest cost items. Unfortunately, they are often treated as just a cost of doing business. From time to time a shipper may try out a new mode of transport, a new carrier or conduct a freight bid. Other than that, freight programs tend to remain fairly static from year to year.

During our years of consulting with shippers all over North America, we have observed a pattern of Best Practices that elevate certain shippers and companies above their peers. Employing these Best Practices allow these companies to reduce freight costs and improve profitability. One of the best ways to find out where a company stands in this area of rising freight rates is to conduct a Transportation Audit.

The implementation of the FMCSA’s ELD mandate in the United States on December 18 was one of the most anticipated milestones in the history of trucking. The introduction of electronic logging devices is the latest attempt by the FMCSA to improve road safety and minimize road accidents in the United States. Driver fatigue is believed to be the biggest cause of road accidents. The FMCSA had previously specified Hours of Service (HOS) rules and regulations that limit how many hours a driver can drive in a day.

However, the problem is that Hours of Service were recorded with paper logs and, therefore, could be easily manipulated and falsified. ELDs are designed to eliminate paper logs and record driver duty statuses and HOS information automatically. Moreover, they are supposed to be tamper-resistant, so the recorded information cannot be altered by anyone.

Late last year, pre-mandate, the smaller fleets were wary of the decrease in miles per day and thereby the reduction in their profit margins. The word on the street was that there would be an exodus of smaller trucking companies when the regulations came into force.

From time to time, I come across companies that offer a unique blend of freight transportation services and technological capabilities. I have written about several of these companies over the last decade. Freightcom (www.freightcom.com) is one of these companies.

The Freightcom Growth Story

The company was founded in 2010. The founders brought many years of freight experience into the business. They established Freightcom with a vision that there had to be a better way to book an LTL or small parcel shipment. It was their experience that the entire process of calling a carrier, obtaining a rate, and booking a shipment was too slow, too difficult, and too complex. They believed that if they could simplify the process for shippers and carriers, they could fill a void in the market and create a significant business.

One of the interesting aspects of the Freightcom story is that they resisted the temptation of many entrepreneurs to build a product and rush to market. In fact, the leaders of the business take pride in the fact that they grew the business slowly and methodically. They purposely “stayed under the radar” as the business expanded. Throughout the process, they refined their service with a combination of freight transportation acumen and technological sophistication.

Five years ago, I posted a blog that was derived from a LinkedIn Sales Management Group. A range of people responded to the question, “What advice would you give a new salesperson?” To that list, I added my own observations.

While many sales techniques stand the test of time, others evolve based on changes in technology and culture. This updated list of tips is designed for two sets of users, new reps, and their managers.

1. Achieve mastery of the services that you sell and understand how your services compare with those of your competitors.

2. Achieve mastery in sales skills. Observe how top sales people perform their craft. Seek out constructive feedback on your sales skills. Work on those areas of your sales skills that need improvement.

Here is my annual report on the top stories in surface transportation in the United States and Canada over the past year. These stories are not listed in order of importance.

Economic Stability, Political Chaos, and Tightening Freight Capacity

Freight matching services or “freight exchanges” have become one of the hottest topics in Freight Transportation over the past few years. Venture capital funds, private investors and others have poured at least $200 million — and potentially substantially more — into dozens of on-demand freight start-ups, including Flexport, Transfix, Loadsmart, Convoy, Doft, Cargo Chief, TugForce, HaulHound, Parade, Ship Lync, Load Surfer, FreightCenter, Freight Finder, Freightera, Freightcom, Pickmyload and others. There are new companies entering this space on a nearly daily basis.

Uber, the controversial but successful online taxi app, has recently announced that it is entering the freight matching arena. What is the attraction?

A brief history of freight matching services

DAT (which is an abbreviation for Dial-A-Truck) was the original load board in North America that was created in 1978. TruckersEdge was founded after DAT and was acquired by TransCore in 1992, another internet pioneer in load board services. Truckstop.com and Getloaded.com were launched in the early 2000s. In 2001, DAT was purchased by TransCore. In 2004, TransCore was acquired by Roper Technologies. In 2014, TransCore DAT became DAT Solutions. For four decades, this group of companies has been offering, for a fee, a process for shippers and brokers to post loads that need to be moved and for carriers to highlight available capacity.

One of the most frequent complaints I hear from carriers, in person, on social media, or at conferences, is about the number and quality of freight bids that they receive. Carriers complain about the poor quality of the data, the number of carriers in the bid, and about the lack of professionalism in the bid process. They also assert that if the shipper would just meet with them face to face, rather than through a bid process, the result would be more successful for both parties and would take a lot less time, money and effort.

My company has designed and executed many successful bids over the past fourteen years. We have learned that for many shippers, success comes from getting “your house in order” before executing the bid. This is what is involved.

Many shippers have been moving the same freight, to the same consignees, using the same processes, for several years. In their haste to put their freight out for bid, they overlook certain aspects of their business.

The Basics

Freight Transportation is typically the single largest cost component of Supply Chain Management. Data from Logistics Management’s Annual Study of Logistics and Transportation Trends highlights that an average transportation spend is in the range of 10 to 11 percent of revenue for companies with less than $250 million in Sales and it is in the range of 2 to 3 percent for companies with revenues in excess of $9 billion. As a result, my colleagues and I are often amazed that freight expenses are undermanaged in so many companies.

Freight Expenses are Controllable, Manageable and Negotiable Costs

Regardless of mode, freight costs are typically comprised of three elements

The following is my annual report on the state of the LTL Freight Industry in the United States and Canada.

Revenues Stagnated Again in 2017

Here are links to the top 100 carriers in Canada (http://www.todaystrucking.com/top100) and the top 25 LTL carriers in the United States (http://www.joc.com/sites/default/files/u48801/truck-tables_1_0.jpg).

Much of the work we do at Dan Goodwill & Associates starts with a phone call or e-mail from a President, CFO or Vice President of Logistics or Transportation. One of the first questions that we are asked is can your firm help us reduce our freight costs.

The answer is usually yes. Unfortunately, we are not able to wave a magic wand. Effective freight cost management comes from taking some concrete steps. Here they are.

Centralized Command and Control

Many of our clients have grown through acquisition and/or organically. They have manufacturing and distribution facilities in multiple locations. These sites are often managed individually by local logistics managers who each use a set of preferred carriers. By not consolidating shipments, by moving LTL freight daily and by using a variety of carriers, they sub-optimize on freight cost management.

Last week I wrote about the consolidation that is taking place in the freight transportation industry in Canada. Thank you for the many positive comments and feedback. I hope the blog has stimulated some thought about the level of competition in the industry, in view of its domination by some very large players.

One of my longstanding colleagues in the industry, who runs an independent transportation operation in Canada, reminded me that there are a range of very fine companies that compete with the industry giants. As a follow-up to last week’s blog, I thought I would provide an overview of the competition in each sector.

As a starting point, I went back over the top 100 for hire fleets in 2016 as published in Today’s Trucking. They range from Canada’s largest trucking fleet, TFI (TransForce International) with over 26,000 pieces of equipment and almost 25,000 employees to the 100th largest company, Transport Matte, with 321 pieces of equipment and 135 employees. It should be noted that there is a steep falloff after you go from TFI to even the second-place carrier, Mullen Group, that has 13, 645 pieces of equipment and 4410 employees. Clearly, TFI is in a class by itself with not just the most trucks but with by far the largest number of fleets under one roof.

The other big fleets highlighted in the previous blog (i.e. Manitoulin, Day & Ross, Mullen) have also grown disproportionately large through a combination of organic growth and/or acquisition. A glance through the top 100 list displays a range of companies, large and small. So let’s take a look at the major freight transport sectors in Canada.

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), came into effect on January 1, 1994, creating the largest free trade region in the world. It was designed to generate economic growth and help raise the standard of living for the people of all three member countries.

“By any measure the NAFTA has been a success by serving as a basis to grow both trilateral and bilateral North American relationships and the results speak for themselves. This integration helps maximize our capabilities and make our economies more innovative and competitive. In 1993, trilateral trade within the North American region was over US$288 billion. In 2015, our total trilateral merchandise trade amounted to over US$ 1.0 trillion.” (Source: Government of Canada Global Affairs Canada website). This is a more than threefold increase since 1993.

During the recent US election, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump frequently spoke about the need to renegotiate NAFTA. They commonly highlighted the impact that “bad trade deals” as they were framed, had on American industry. As the election campaign unfolded, Hillary Clinton fell into line with her opponents on this issue. While the subject of renegotiating NAFTA has come up before, this time will likely be different. Here’s why.

Donald Trump has already stated that one of his major priorities is to create jobs in America. He campaigned with the slogan “Make America Great Again.” A big part of making America great again is bringing back jobs that were lost to other countries. This message resonated strongly with working class people living in “rust belt” states. In fact, the race for the Presidency was decided in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These states turned their backs on the Democrats and voted for Donald Trump. To maintain the support of working class Americans in these states, Mr. Trump will have to demonstrate that he is trying to bring back jobs to these states. To better understand the challenges of people living in cities in this area, who have lost their jobs, I encourage everyone to read Hillbilly Elegy by J.D. Vance (see my blog on the book http://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog?view=entry&id=253 ).

During this period of modest economic growth and ample capacity, freight rates have been in decline. This is confirmed by the various market indices that track freight rates. Lower energy prices that have translated in lower fuel surcharges have also helped keep freight rates in check. The data also indicates that some shippers are switching modes and moving from intermodal back to highway service to obtain faster service at more attractive rates. Looking ahead to the future, 54 percent of the trucking companies responding to a recent Inbound Logistics survey expect static growth in the near term.

Despite the drop in freight rates, 75 percent of shippers surveyed in the same study stated that reducing transportation costs is their top priority while only 38 percent indicating that finding capacity is a challenge. The static economy and low energy prices would appear to be creating a “perfect storm” for shippers seeking to meet their greatest challenge. The danger for shippers is to get greedy as many did during the Great Recession. We remember seeing shippers bid their freight multiple times a year in the hope of continuing to drive lower freight costs. While we are big believers in the value of high quality freight bids, we are also a strong proponent of the old adage, “you get what you pay for.”

We all know that just as there are cycles in the stock market and the housing industry, there are cycles in the freight industry. What goes down will go up again. Shippers that surround themselves with “bottom feeder” carriers at discounted rates will likely have a rude awakening when the market turns. Moreover, with new government regulations coming into play and the volatility of fuel prices, capacity will likely tighten and freight rates may rise sooner than later.

So what should thoughtful shippers do to manage their freight costs as smartly as possible? As stated above, we still believe that conducting a professional freight bid exercise, once a year or every two years is a wise thing to do. For shippers that include a range of quality carriers and logistics service partners in the RFP and conduct multiple round events, this is still a great way to secure savings in freight costs.

On July 1, Canada celebrated its 149th birthday. Just prior to Canada Day, I had the privilege of speaking to a group of industry professionals on the topic of the Canadian freight market during a Stifel conference call. For those of you trying to learn more about America’s neighbor to the north, this and subsequent blogs will capture the highlights from the presentation.

Canada has a population of 36.3 million people, about one tenth the size of the United States and similar in size to the population of the state of California. The majority of the population lives within a 200 mile radius of the US border, the longest unprotected border in the world. About 20 million Canadians live in the major metropolitan locations of Montreal, Toronto, Ottawa, Hamilton, Edmonton, Quebec City, Winnipeg and Vancouver. Canada has the eleventh largest economy in the world.

From a freight perspective, the country can be divided into 4 distinct regions. Each region has its own industries and transportation challenges.

The 2016 Surface Transportation Summit will take place at the International Centre in Toronto on October 13. The event will be co-hosted by Newcom Business Media and Dan Goodwill & Associates in partnership with the Ontario Trucking Association and the Freight Management Association of Canada. There will be some exciting changes this year.

As always, the conference will be kicked off by a look ahead to the Economy in the year ahead. Carlos Gomes, Senior Economist, Scotiabank will share his overview of 2016 and make some projections for the coming year. For the first time, the Summit will showcase two of North America’s top freight industry investment analysts. Walter Spracklin, Managing Director, Capital Markets, RBC Investment Securities, will offer his insights on the freight transportation industry in Canada. John Larkin, Managing Director of Research, at Stifel Financial Corp., will provide a status report on the current state of the freight industry in the United States.

Wendell Erb, President & CEO, The Erb Group of Companies will provide some commentary on the economy from a trucking company perspective. He will be joined by a Rob Bryson, recently retired Vice-President at Parrish & Heimbecker, who will provide observations and perspectives from a shipper’s perspective.

Every few years I like to take a look at some of the new technology-based entrants to the freight transportation industry to see who are the “movers” and “shakers.” While Amazon dominates the headlines, there are a host of other companies doing some very interesting things in the technology space.

This blog will look at some names that surfaced in the past and some of the new players that are taking freight brokerage to a new level. While new technology is being applied to a variety of freight related tasks (i.e. calculating freight dimensions, dock appointment scheduling), this blog will examine some of the companies are actually in the business of moving freight. They are bridging the asset world with the technology world. I have selected a group of companies that have caught my attention. They are Cargomatic, uShip, Freightera, Freightquote, FreightCentre, Uship, Project44, Logistical Labs and ZRATE.

Cargomatic