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These are crazy times. Wildfires in Canada produced dark skies over eastern Canada and the northeastern United States and some of the worst pollution on record. We are only in mid-July and the peak fire season hasn’t begun. Record high temperatures are being experienced in the southern United States on a daily basis. Severe rain, flooding and flight cancellations are being experienced in the northeast.

Former President Trump was indicted for a second time this year, the first time a previous President has ever faced charges after leaving office. There are possibly two more indictments to come.

The Vegas Golden Knights, in their sixth year of existence, won the Stanley Cup while the six Canadian teams in the National Hockey League, where hockey in the national sport, haven’t won the cup in 30 years. The screen actors and writers have gone on strike together for the first time in 63 years.

Looking at the broader economy, manufacturing has been contracting on a year/year basis. Retail inventories are bloated. As fears of the pandemic faded, consumers switched back to buying services. High mortgage rates are resulting is less building and less freight. According to Bob Costello, Chief Economist and Senior VP of the American Trucking Association, all freight indicators are contracting on a year/year basis. Supply is contracting; demand is contracting. There is still too much supply. The Spot Market is much worse than the Contract Market. Despite the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy, the economy has not yet entered a recession.

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In the first seven months of this year, we have witnessed two of the largest acquisitions in the LTL trucking sector in many years. In January we observed the acquisition of UPS’s LTL division by TFII, the large Canada-based transportation conglomerate. Last week the nation’s largest TL carrier, Knight-Swift Transportation (NYSE: KNX,) acquired AAA Cooper Transportation in a $1.35 billion deal. AAA Cooper runs a regional network of 70 facilities and 3,400 doors spanning from El Paso, Texas, to the Southern East Coast, along with multiple locations in the Midwest. Knight-Swift purchased a company with a fleet of 3,000 tractors and 7,000 trailers for less than 10x EBITDA.

At $43 billion in revenue, the US LTL sector is approximately one tenth the size of the truckload industry. For many years this was a highly competitive low margin business. What is driving these large M & A activities in the LTL sector by predominantly truckload carriers?

Continued Strength in Manufacturing

Manufacturing and industrial activity, which can account for up to 85% of LTL tonnage for some carriers, has been strong during the pandemic. The Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Manager’s Index) was 60.7% in June. The overall US economy has expanded for eleven consecutive months.

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The new year has started with a bang with TFII's planned purchase of the LTL Freight division of UPS.  TFII is a large Canadian freight transportation conglomerate and it's deal is unique in some ways but not in others.

The challenge for many Canadian LTL carriers has been to establish a solid arrangement with a profitable, reliable US LTL partner so they can jointly secure lucrative cross-border freight. Since the United States population is ten times the size of Canada’s, historically it has been financially difficult for a Canadian LTL carrier to purchase a major US LTL partner. Besides the cost, an acquisition of this nature only makes sense if the Canadian carrier is prepared to compete in the U.S. domestic LTL market.

As a result, most Canadian LTL carriers that have been interested in cross-border LTL freight, have formed partnerships with or more U.S. carriers. These partnerships typically last for a few years until one of the following things happen. The U.S. carrier decides to buy a Canadian carrier or cartage company in one or more Canadian cities and enter the market under their own banner. Alternatively, the one partner becomes frustrated with the other partner due to a lack of sales production. The carriers then must seek other partners or another group of partners as replacements. This partnership arrangement has been prevalent for decades.

A Brief History of Canadian Purchases of U.S. LTL Carriers

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Understanding the YRCW Bailout

Posted by on in LTL Freight

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On July 1, 2020 the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced that it was providing YRC Worldwide with a two-tranche loan that would allow it to make delinquent health and welfare and pension payments as well as fund capital expenditures for its tractors and trailers. As part of the deal, YRC is required to issue the Treasury Department shares of common stock, which YRC expects will equate to a 29.6% equity stake in the company.

The press release stated that “YRC is a leading provider of critical military transportation and other hauling services to the U.S. government and provides 68% of less-than-truckload services to the Department of Defense. This loan will enable YRC to maintain approximately 30,000 trucking jobs and continue to support essential military supply chain operations and the transport of industrial, commercial, and retail goods to more than 200,000 corporate customers across North America.”

It is noteworthy that this is the first time the U.S government has taken a large stake in a company seeking a bailout in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. It is also the first loan announced from the $17 billion relief fund created by U.S. lawmakers to help "businesses critical to maintaining national security."

To make sense of this bailout, it is worth taking a trip back in history. In the early 2000s there were three large unionized LTL carriers, Consolidated Freightways, Roadway Corporation and Yellow Freight System. Back in 2002, Consolidated Freightways Corp., America's third-largest trucker laid off about 15,500 workers, shut down its operations and filed for bankruptcy.

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As of May 2, 32 U.S. states and 5 Canadian provinces (https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/reopening-canada-provinces-ontario-quebec-saskatchewan-alberta) have announced plans to reopen businesses on a phased basis. Each state and province has developed back to work guidelines to manage the process. These actions are being taken even though Covid-19 is a very contagious virus with 1.1 million reported cases and 65,000 deaths in the US and 55,000 cases and almost 3400 deaths in Canada. Currently there is no cure and a cure is at least a year or more away.

Government Health Care Guidelines

While there are various sets of guidelines that have been published, those developed by New York State and by the Province of Ontario (https://www.ontario.ca/page/resources-prevent-covid-19-workplace?_ga=2.258615434.1461890914.1588269926-1610310933.1584035138 ) are particularly thoughtful and will be referred to in this blog. The NY state document stipulates that to open their economy, hospital and ICU capacity should not exceed 70%. Moreover, the rate of transmissions should be less than 1.1 (i.e. one person infects less than 1.1 people). Adhering to these guidelines will limit the possibility of hospitals being overwhelmed by a surge of new cases. The CDC (Centre for Disease Control) in the United States suggests that there should be a 14-day decline in Covid-19 hospitalizations immediately preceding the lifting of restrictions. Should the number of infections begin to escalate, restrictions should be put back in place. Note that some states are lifting restrictions while infections are rising.

The NY state plan stipulates that a testing regimen should be activated with a daily objective of 30 tests per 1000 people. There should also be a satisfactory number of testing sites in each location; there should be an immediate turnaround on testing results to limit the spread. New York State suggests that an advertising program be created to educate the public about the need and the process of being tested.

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Here is my annual recap of the major trends that shaped the Surface Transportation industry during the past year.

1. The Reboot – The Trucking Industry goes into a Freight Recession in 2019

After a booming first three quarters of 2018, the trucking industry contracted in the fourth quarter; by mid-April of 2019, it became apparent (https://www.barrons.com/articles/trucking-industry-is-in-a-recession-will-economy-follow-51565880739) that the trucking industry was in a “freight recession.” In a “strange inversion of market dynamics,” truckload rates dipped below intermodal rates in some lanes. By mid-year, the Cass Freight Shipper Expenditure Index turned negative year / year signaling that shippers were paying less for freight and moving fewer loads than the previous year.

The correction seemed to be a result of several factors. Slower industrial production was evidenced by the dip below 50 in the ISM Production Index. Trade tensions and tariff wars with China reduced demand. On the supply side, many truckers added to their fleets to address the capacity shortages in 2018. This coupled with higher pay to attract drivers and increasing insurance costs, drove up expenses as freight rates were falling. Softening demand, coupled with excess capacity, produced the Freight Recession of 2019.

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From a Freight Transportation perspective, the past two years have been among the most tumultuous in decades. Throughout 2018, an economic surge, a shortage of qualified drivers, and the implementation of the ELD mandate in the United States, created a shortage of freight capacity, particularly in the truckload sector. Shippers struggled to find trucks to move their loads.

To address these shortfalls, many shippers were forced to pay significantly higher rates, establish dedicated fleets and/or change their freight operations to become a “Shipper of Choice.” Rather than simply tender their loads, shippers were advised to become more “carrier friendly.” This encompassed a range of activities.

Becoming a “Shipper of Choice”

Shippers learned that they could improve their chances of securing needed truck space by giving carriers advance notice of a pending surge in business volumes. Another way to improve carrier relations was to help fleets keep their trucks on the road, rather than sitting in warehouse yards or at loading docks. To avoid carrier detention fees for long waits, shippers and receivers were encouraged to improve appointment scheduling and freight loading / unloading processes.

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These are the major developments shaping the freight transportation industry in North America in the second half of 2019.

1. We are entering a period of Economic Uncertainty

Despite a climate of record low unemployment levels, low inflation, a positive ISM manufacturing index and other encouraging economic indicators, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates on July 31 by a quarter point, the first such rate reduction since 2008. This action is being framed as a precautionary measure to protect the United States from slowing growth in China and Europe, and from uncertainty over President Trump’s trade war. The fact is that this unpredictability is beginning to weigh on business investment in the United States and abroad. Shippers and carriers should closely monitor the key economic indicators to assess whether this and possible other rate cuts will sustain the decade long economic expansion or ease the impact of an approaching downturn or recession.

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There are approximately 540,000 truckload carriers registered with the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration in the United States. These range from 1 truck to 20,000 truck fleets. The majority have less than 20 pieces of equipment in their fleets. These companies generated approximately $350 billion in revenue in 2018.

Revenue/Tonnage Growth in 2018

Here is a link to the top 50 truckload carriers in the United States and Canada that are listed in Transport Topics (https://www.ttnews.com/top100/tl/2018). Swift Transportation, Schneider National, Landstar System, J.B. Hunt Transportation Services, and Penske Logistics are the five largest US based truckload carriers; TFI (formerly TransForce International), Mullen Group, Canada Cartage, Bison Transport and Challenger Motor Freight are Canada’s largest truckload operators. It should be noted that TFI that has its head office in Canada now derives a significant share of its revenues from the United States.

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b2ap3_thumbnail_dreamstime_l_106494691.jpgIn February 2019, the American Trucking Research Institute completed an excellent study entitled, E-Commerce Impacts on the Trucking Industry. This blog contains a summary of the highlights of this report. For more information on this topic, download the full report which contains an array of sources that are footnoted throughout the document.

E-commerce has been defined as retail and business transactions involving the use of online platforms. Closely aligned with E-commerce is omni-channel retailing, which represents a real-time, channel-agnostic synchronized visibility of inventory across the supply chain using a central stock pool, that allows consumers to fulfil demand anytime, anywhere. These developments have disrupted current business models in the retail industry. Technological innovations associated with these developments have significantly changed the consumer experience; manufacturers, distributors, retailers and transportation companies have adapted their supply chains and business models to support the new retail environment.

This blog is comprised of two components.

The first segment examines changes that pertain to retail supply chains. This is followed by a look the direct impacts of these changes on freight transportation.

The Changing Retail Landscape

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The following is my annual report on the state of the LTL Freight Industry in the United States and Canada.

The Booming Freight Market of 2018

Strong economic growth and high employment in the United States and Canada, coupled with concerns over US tariffs and trade wars, and high truck utilization rates, propelled freight demand and freight rate pricing skyward. Contract and spot LTL rates rose to record levels. These powerful forces helped make 2018 an outstanding year for many, but not all LTL truckers.

How Big is the LTL Market?

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Those of us who came into the freight transportation industry in the 80s and 90s remember when there were distinct sets of service providers. There were small parcel carriers, LTL carriers, full truckload service providers and rail carload operators. Of course, during slow times, truckload carriers would move some large LTL shipments. The small parcel carriers targeted shipments in the low end of the LTL freight sector. Even back in the 80s. truckload consolidations (of multiple LTL shipments) were popular in certain industry segments (i.e. auto parts). However, these four labels were a pretty good reflection of the major types of transportation services available at that time. Companies in each of these segments had a unique core competence and tended to operate in their area of expertise.

Today, Transport Topics and other journals still publish lists of the top 100 truckload carriers and top 50 LTL carriers. However, when you examine the business activities of a number of companies in each sector, you realize that these labels no longer fit well with the diversity of services that many trucking companies currently provide.

As an example, JB Hunt has been known for years as one of the premier truckload carriers in North America. At one point in time, this was a very accurate description of this company. However, when you examine the revenue of this company, over-the-road truckload freight now represents only five percent of the total. Through a focused business strategy and organic growth, intermodal transportation, dedicated fleet movements and freight management now make up the bulk of their business.

XPO Logistics, through their acquisition of Conway, has $3.6 billion in LTL revenues and now ranks third in the rankings of LTL carriers. This company, well known for its large logistics operation, now has a strong presence in two of the major sectors of the freight transportation industry.

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The following is my annual report on the state of the LTL Freight Industry in the United States and Canada. Here are links to the top 100 carriers in Canada (https://www.todaystrucking.com/top-100-ranking-canadas-largest-hire-fleets/ ) and the top 25 LTL carriers in the United States (https://www.logisticsmgmt.com/article/the_top_25_trucking_and_less_than_truckload_ltl_companies_in_2017 ). The combined revenue of the 25 largest U.S. LTL trucking companies remained unchanged at $31.8 billion in 2015 and 2016, according to The Journal of Commerce’s 2016 ranking of the Top 25 LTL Carriers, prepared by SJ Consulting Group. In 2017 annual revenues grew by 7.8% to $34.5 billion.

The Booming Freight Market of 2017 - 2018

Freight volumes are strong as we approach mid-year. Carriers, hampered by a lack of drivers and faced with new time constraints due to mandatory electronic logging devices (ELDs) in the United States, are increasingly being selective in picking the best-yielding freight for their freight lines. LTL carriers are picking up volume from the tightening TL market. Some large TL carriers started rejecting lighter loads of 5,000 pounds to 10,000 pounds earlier this year, and that freight is now moving via LTL carriers. The net result is LTL freight base rates are soaring with some experts projecting increases of 4 to 5 percent or more. In addition, LTL carriers are doing a better job quoting accurate dimensional pricing and accessorial charges which also places upward pressure on rates. This environment will likely continue for the remainder of this year.

The LTL Industry remains a Non-Union “Big Boys” Game

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Investopedia defines Blockchain as a distributed database that holds records of digital data or events in a way that makes them tamper-resistant. While many users may access, inspect, or add to the data, they can’t change or delete them. With Blockchain, transactions agreed by consensus are added to a block, a unique cryptographic code is calculated of the block, and that code is added to the following block creating a unique chain of blocks containing all the transactions.

The so-called distributed ledger is a technological system that is an asset database that can be shared across a network on multiple sites, geographies, or institutions. The original information stays put, leaving a permanent and public information trail, or chain, of transactions. The decentralized and distributed digital ledger contains transactions across many computers so that the record cannot be altered retroactively without the alteration of all subsequent blocks and the collusion of the network. In short, Blockchain is a record-keeping mechanism that makes it easier and safer for businesses to work together over the internet.

The most popular application of Blockchain technology is Bitcoin, the currency system. The good news is that the Blockchain protocol can be used for non-currency purposes as well.

Though it was initially intended for financial transactions, businesses of all kinds are getting creative with the so-called Blockchain ledger, as it can be used to record, track, and verify trades of virtually anything that holds value. From ride-sharing to cloud storage to voting, companies in all industries are beginning to see blockchain’s potential. Earlier this year, consulting firm Deloitte predicted that by 2025, 10% of global GDP (approximately $12 trillion) would be built on top of Blockchain applications.

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As baby boomer logistics leaders move into retirement, their successors are tasked with directing the company’s distribution operations. Informed business leaders realize that we are in a period of profound changes. Companies such as Amazon and Uber are disrupting current business models. Technology and automation are altering manufacturing processes. Ecommerce and omni-channel distribution are upsetting existing retail processes. As my colleagues and I meet with shippers, we find many companies are exploring their options. Should they try to manage these changes in house or should they enlist the support of outside resources?

In-House or Outsource?

It is important to understand that business leaders do not face a binary choice. The field of Logistics is more complex than it has ever been. Senior logistics professionals must possess a variety of business skills and possess a depth of knowledge in a range of areas such as supply chain design and management, warehouse and inventory control, customer service, transportation and information management. These leaders must then be able to adapt and apply their skills and knowledge to specific companies in the manufacturing, distribution and retail sectors, including bricks and mortar and eCommerce organizations. This leads to a fundamental question for every organization. Does the company have a set of leaders who possess this range of skills and knowledge?

While it is unlikely that one senior executive will possess all of these attributes, the broader question is does the company possess these skills across its logistics management team. If not, what skills and knowledge does it need to import from external sources? This article outlines how to create a leadership plan (http://www.supplychainquarterly.com/news/20170428-how-to-plan-for-future-supply-chain-leadership/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Executive%20Insight%20 ).

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As we enter a New Year, many people create a set of resolutions to burn off a few pounds, to quit smoking or to achieve whatever goals are meaningful to them. On a professional level, this is a time for smart shippers to set in motion a series of resolutions to improve their company’s freight operations and their personal career trajectory. Here are a few to consider.

1. Follow the Donald . . . closely

President-elect Trump has promised to make a number of changes to both the domestic economic situation in the United States and to the current world order. As an individual who campaigned as an “outsider,” Donald Trump threatens to upend a range of current business practices. Keep a close eye on his trade policies, his efforts to boost manufacturing jobs in America, his government spending programs, his policies on climate change and on infrastructure spending. Initiatives in these areas would have an impact the flow of goods and services, on economic growth and on freight transportation.

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This will likely be an eventful year in Freight Transportation. As I look ahead to the coming year, there will be two sets of forces at play. The President-Elect of the United States, Donald Trump, has made some bold promises. This blog will look at the potential impacts of his presidency. The next blog will examine some of the other major forces at play.

Infrastructure

Donald Trump has spoken repeatedly about improving America’s highways, bridges, and airports. The Transportation industry has bemoaned the lack of investment in infrastructure for several years. It is likely that at least some elements of whatever plan President Trump’s team puts forth will receive bi-partisan support from the other branches of government. 

It typically takes time to plan significant infrastructure projects so they reach “shovel ready” status. In addition to improving the nation’s infrastructure, these projects also create jobs, albeit over a specific timeline. Watch for some infrastructure projects to be launched in 2017 with the balance moving forward in the coming years. These projects should be a net positive for the transportation industry. However, keep in mind that some of these projects, such as toll roads, may receive some funding from private industry (if permitted by congress) and may result in higher costs for shippers and transport companies.

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The past year started with some solid tailwinds as the economies of the United States and Canada appeared to be in a growth mode. Then a number of unexpected events took place that changed the trajectory of the year. Here is our synopsis of the major freight transportation stories of 2015.

The Collapse in Energy Prices

The rout in oil prices began in late 2014 as Saudi Arabia stood firm in its insistence not to cut production quotas. The downturn in China’s economy produced less demand as oil supply remained at pre-downturn levels, a recipe for low oil prices and other challenges throughout the year. This had a huge impact on Canada’s oil sands companies, producing significant layoffs. There were also spillover effects in other energy sectors such as coal mining. The latter experienced very large price drops and decreased shipping volumes.

The steep decline in fuel and oil prices has, in turn, been a boon to freight transportation and logistics services providers primarily in the form of lower operating costs, while at the same time tremendously aiding carriers and providers serving retail-based customers, as lower fuel prices have dramatically impacted the amount of discretionary income consumers have.

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Some companies have strong leaders with good strategies and good systems. Unfortunately, they don’t put the pieces together and therefore deliver less than stellar freight management results. In other words, the execution isn’t there.  Projects are identified but they don’t produce the desired results.

Some companies seem to adopt a “flavour” or “mission” of the month approach. They hire a consultant to adopt lean manufacturing, lean logistics or balanced scorecards. The tools to make these systems work are never put into place properly and before you know it, they criticize the consultant, move on to the next consultant and don’t accomplish much of value.

While these companies may be able to generate pretty reports, the programs were ill conceived in the first place. They don’t produce results. This can lead to the “blame game.”

Achieving operational excellence is not about sexy slogans and programs. It is about teamwork, communication and commitment. There has to be an identification of the root causes of the problems. There has to be a commitment from the leadership to fix the problems. The company leaders must stay the course to fix the problems. They cannot assume that since a program has been put in place, the results will come automatically.

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Throughout this series of blogs, the focus has been on how Best in Class shippers ensure their freight is delivered at the right place, at the right time and intact. The beauty of freight management is that so much about transportation is measurable. Over the years we have observed how Best in Class shippers pull away from mediocre performers and industry laggards in the area of measuring performance. They tend to have better data and more robust and relevant tools and reports. These are some of the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and Reports that they utilize.

Macro Financial Indicators

The first set of financial ratios helps identify trends in supply chain costs and their impact on the business over time. Key ratios include:

Supply chain costs as a % of Revenue

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