Follow us on Twitter!
Blog Header Logo
DG&A's Transportation Consulting Blog
Subscribe to this list via RSS Blog posts tagged in US Housing Market

At the end of each year, I like to take stock of the major freight transportation stories of the past twelve months and look ahead to the trends that will drive the industry in the coming year.  The two blogs that I write are prepared from my perspective as a consultant to shippers and carriers.

This year I would like to hear from you.  Those of you who follow this blog observe trends in your segment of the industry.  Please take a minute to share them with me.  Please post them on this blog or send a private e mail to dan@dantranscon.com

Please feel free to select any major trend or trends that are having or will have a major impact on our industry, whether regulatory, economic, technological, demographic, consumer behavior, environmental, modal shifts or business strategy.

To broaden the range of inputs and perspectives, I will also post this request on Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter.  In the coming weeks I will be preparing my two lists.  The lists will include a blend of my observations and yours.  Look for these two blogs in mid-December.  Thank you to those of you who take the time to share your observations with me.

 

...
Hits: 22796
0
Continue reading 0 Comments

The economic forecast for this year and for the balance of the decade is rather glum.  Many economists have projected a two percent growth in GDP will become the norm for the next several years.  This scenario is supported by the fact that 24 million Americans are out of work and millions more are underemployed or have given up looking for a job, corporations are reluctant to invest in their businesses until there is a more visible sign that a sustainable recovery is under way and the US government seems incapable of reaching far-ranging agreements on the financial management of the country.  Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labour and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, certainly not a number that would instill confidence that America is turning the corner. Looking at the past several years, it is easy to support the thesis that we should expect to see more of the same in the future.

But America doesn’t seem to be buying into the low growth scenario.  Here is why.

  • The stock market, a leading indicator of economic activity, has almost doubled since March 2009.  Investors poured $11 billion into U.S. equities in the first two weeks of 2013, the biggest gain since 2000.  The market is telling us that there are better days ahead.
  • Over the next 5 to 7 years, America is expected to achieve energy independence and will no longer be dependent on foreign energy sources.
  • A strong housing market gained momentum in November, 2012 and is expected to continue through 2013, especially with low mortgage rates, which will keep affordability high, according to the BBVA Compass. The Housing Market Index rose to 46 compared to 41 October, which is the highest level since 2006. The jump is a result of homebuilder’s confidence in the housing market.  New home sales and construction are expected to continue on a strong trend throughout the remainder of the year.
  • A healthier economy and more model introductions should push U.S. auto sales above the 15 million mark this year, predicts the Polk research firm.  Auto sales should continue to lead the country's economic recovery, rising nearly 7 per cent over 2012 to 15.3 million new vehicle registrations.
  • Another tech boom is under way with consumers migrating to tablets, smartphones and social media.  America is strong in these areas and Apple, a key player, has recently signaled that it plans to perform some if its manufacturing in the United States.
  • The United States may be in the early stages of recapturing a significant piece of the manufacturing production that fled to Asia over the previous couple of decades.  This is being driven by three factors.  Wage rates in the U.S. are depressed, while labour costs in China are rising.   The surge in oil prices is making it more expensive to move goods across oceans and the shale gas boom in the U.S. has dramatically lowered the cost of powering a plant.   U.S. productivity rates are among the best in the world.  According to the Boston Consulting Group, the U.S. economy is poised to add between 2.5 million and 5 million jobs over the next decade as result of increased factory production (700,000 to 1.3 million actual factory workers and the rest from supporting services).
  • U.S. employers added 157,000 jobs in January 2013.

Jeffrey Saut, the chief investment strategist at Raymond James, has suggested that if we look at the combined impact of all of these developments, we may be witnessing the early signs of a new long-term bull market.  Time will tell.  Low interest rates will not last forever.

One thing has been strangely missing during the first five weeks of 2013.  While President Obama has been pushing hard for immigration reform and new gun laws, two very important initiatives, he has said very little about any legislation aimed directly at economic growth.  Perhaps we will hear some of his plans during this week’s State of the Union report.  Certainly the President’s leadership in areas such as infrastructure development, education and training (retraining), debt reduction and a sound budget would go a long way towards powering America in this direction.  This was one of the key elements of his election campaign.  Now is the time for the President to step up and lead his country and the free world to a strong and sustained economic recovery.  Based on the trends above, he has the option of being a leader or a follower.  Let’s see which path he chooses to take.

Hits: 14427
0
0 Comments

Most Recent Posts

Search


Tag Cloud

economy FMCSA tanker cars BlueGrace Logistics Rate per Mile Stephen Harper Trade Vision Freight Carriers Association of Canada 3PLTL coaching Canada's global strategy FCPC Distribution Load Boards BNSF Associates President Obama Truckload Doug Davis FuelQuest US Election NMFC Transloading freight transportation Freight Shuttle System Ferromex Twitter customer engagement 2014 freight forecast US Economy transportation newspaper LinkedIn Climate Change NS CP Rail Infrastructure Canada-U.S. trade agreement YRC trucking company acquisitions Job satisfaction Spanx Politics Surety bond Success Grocery Business Transformation Strategy ELD Microsoft fuel surcharge Career Advice dimensional pricing Yield Improvement freight agreements freight transportation conference Training hiring process Derek Singleton David Tuttle Toronto Failure intermodal Entrepreneur carrier conference Whole Foods Amazon Education Transportation service Regina Sales Management Conway Finance and Transportation supply chain management CSA Adrian Gonzalez Software Advice last mile delivery natural disasters automation Canadian truckers 2013 Economic Forecast freight payment professional drivers Retail KCS Keystone Pipeline driverless Doug Nix the future of transportation CITA Shipper Pulse Survey broker bonds routing guide Freight contracts Transport Capital Partners (TCP) freight payment freight audit US Housing Market Freight Recession ProMiles Crude Oil by Rail FCA US Auto Sales Training New Hires Scott Monty 360ideaspace TMP Worldwide Business Strategy shipper-carrier contracts APL economic forecasts for 2012 Business skills freight rate increases CRM Dedicated Contract Carriage consumer centric USA Truck CSX financial management UP Success failure entrepreneur Social Media Wal-Mart freight audit Accessorial Charges freight bid Transplace home delibery derailments robotics risk management Cleveland Cavaliers Trump Retail transportation Reshoring employee termination network optimization Carriers Trucking Freight driver shortages cheap oil University of Tennessee marketing Outsourcing Sales future of freight industry ShipMax Leadership Rotman School of Business Donald Trump Canada freight cost savings Packaging Global Transportation Hub New York Times buying trucking companies 2014 freight volumes Colilers International truck driver MBA capacity shortages transportation audit Dan Goodwill Emergent Strategy JB Hunt Blogging truck drivers autonomous vehicles Bobby Harris freight RFP Driving for Profit US Manufacturing home delivery Warehousing RFP Swift Transcom Fleet Leasing Rail CN Sales LTL pipelines Freight Rates peak season dynamic pricing shipper-carrier collaboration shipping wine capacity shortage transportation news CN Rail Omni Channel drones Life Lessons Tracy Matura Transportation 3PL small business Canadian freight market Driver Shortage Fire Phone online shopping IANA Freight Capacity Otto broker security Muhammad Ali shipper-carrier roundtable 2014 economic forecast $75000 bond shipping Celadon mentoring Schneider Logistics FMS Werner driver Management Canada U.S. trade Social Media in Transportation LCV's NAFTA Crisis management Search engine optimization Dedicated Trucking Loblaw Inbound Transportation e-commerce solutions provider EBOR Shipper CSA scores Harper Davos speech Hudsons Bay Company energy efficiency Canadian Transportation & Logistics business start-up freight forwarders rail safety Deferred Packaging Railway Association of Canada Map-21 Sales Training Freight Management Load broker Comey TransForce Consulting freight broker trade MPG Broker Freight Matching Masters in Logistics freight transportation in 2011 freight costs Global experience Facebook Right Shoring Transportation Buying Trends Survey 2012 Transportation Business Strategies. Jugaad 2015 Economic Forecast Horizontal Supply Chain Collaboration selling trucking companies NCC bulk shipping Canadian economy TMS

Blog Archives