The wild gyrations in the stock market and the continuing bad economic news, particularly on U.S. unemployment and housing prices, make one wonder if we are coming out of a Great Recession, are experiencing a continuation of 2008-2009 or relapsing into another recession. Kenneth Rogoff, the esteemed Harvard Professor of Economics and Public Policy wrote in a recent paper that “the phrase ‘Great Recession’ creates the impression that the economy is following the contours of a typical recession, only more severe – something like a really bad cold. That is why, throughout this downturn, forecasters and analysts who have tried to make analogies to past post-war US recessions have gotten it so wrong. Moreover, too many policymakers have relied on the belief that, at the end of the day, this is just a deep recession that can be subdued by a generous helping of conventional policy tools, whether fiscal policy or massive bailouts . . .
A more accurate, if less reassuring, term for the ongoing crisis is the ‘Second Great Contraction.’ This was based on . . . (the) diagnosis of the crisis as a typical deep financial crisis, not a typical deep recession. The first “Great Contraction” of course, was the Great Depression . .. The contraction applies not only to output and employment, as in a normal recession, but to debt and credit, and the deleveraging that typically takes many years to complete. . .
In a conventional recession, the resumption of growth implies a reasonably brisk return to normalcy. The economy not only regains its lost ground, but, within a year, it typically catches up to its rising long-run trend.
The aftermath of a typical deep financial crisis is something completely different . . . it typically takes an economy more than four years just to reach the same per capita income level that it had attained at its pre-crisis peak. So far, across a broad range of macroeconomic variables, including output, employment, debt, housing prices, and even equity, our quantitative benchmarks based on previous deep post-war financial crises have proved far more accurate than conventional recession logic.”
If Mr. Rogoff’s analysis is correct, it would explain why so many economic indicators appear to be stuck in neutral. It suggests that truckers should be very caustious about investing in plant and equipment at a time when consumers are keeping their wallets in their pockets and the prospects for economic improvement seem so dim. The “Second Great Contraction” may take years to turn itself around. For job seekers or even for people employed in the trucking industry, it also highlights the need to be flexible and to create options.
I was particulary struck by an article written by Barbara Moses, the organizational career consultant that appears in today’s Toronto Globe & Mail. In the article she outlines strategies to “revamp your career path.” She cites two examples of people who are known for re-invention, Madonna and Victoria Backham. She then makes the point that “neither of these so-called career re-inventors really re-inventeed herself. Rather, in their different ways, they both renewed themsleves by building on things that were already part of who they are ”
Her point is that making a radical transformation is expensive. Moreover, you can end up starting at the bottom of the corporate ladder. “The alternative is to think of yourself as having a portfolio of skills and experiences. You can liberate significant opportunities by reconfiguring the mix of skills and abilities to use more of some, and less of others, in new and different ways . . . Think of your skills as Lego pieces that can be reworked into new shapes. Your job and job title are simply vehicles through which you express a wide range of capabilities.”
In Transportation there are lots of opportunities for renewal. For transportation sales personnel there are positions in shipper organizations in transportation or traffic management. Transportation executives can find careers in education, government and in consulting. It also pays to supplement your current skills and knowledge through continuing education.
If Mr. Rogoff is right, it is going to take time to pull out of the current economic malaise. This is a great opportunity to upgrade or add new skills. It is also a good time to creatively mix, match and leverage your current skills in new ways to create new employment opportunities.
