Shippers across North America are in the process of conducting their annual or mini freight bid exercises. What is in store for shippers and carriers this year?

This is a unique year. The supply/demand curve shifted during the early stages of Covid. Consumers transitioned to working from home, cut back on travel and dining out, spent their disposable dollars on durable goods and some moved away from their city residences. To meet the demand for increased freight transportation services, to move the increase in durable goods purchases, carriers boosted their purchases of fleet equipment. As this process was unfolding, governments sent out cheques to support citizens who lost their jobs during this period and kept interest rates low to stimulate the economy.

As Covid dissipated, consumers cut back on durable goods purchases and shifted some of their discretionary dollars back to travel, dining out, and entertainment. The net result of these market forces was surging inflation. Prices for food, gasoline, travel, dining out, mortgages and many other goods and services escalated. While the economy is not technically in a recession, rising prices created limitations on spending, as discretionary dollars were reduced. The bottom line for the Transportation Industry: There is now too much fleet capacity chasing too few shipments.

The so-called “freight recession” is manifesting itself in the financial results of publicly traded carriers and in the number of carrier failures. The demise of Yellow Freight, a major LTL carrier that has been in business for many decades and Convoy, a much talked about, digital freight broker, are among the thousands of companies that have left the industry this year.

Freight volumes are at record levels on many lanes this fall. Load rejections, freight embargoes and rate increases are now becoming the norm. Even driver shortages, which started to dwindle in the early stages of the pandemic, are once again a factor in securing capacity to move freight. Motor carriers have leverage as to the shippers they wish to serve. For the past several decades, many shippers have turned to a commonly used tool to secure capacity and competitive rates, the freight bid.

My colleagues and I have reviewed many bids over the years and have successfully conducted dozens of these projects for our shipper clients. In some cases, we have been asked by carriers to help them prepare responses to the bids they receive. We have also reviewed RFPs for many other kinds of services including software procurement, organizational structure review, transportation, and production process efficiency. In so many cases we have remarked that our services would have been just as valuable helping the bid or RFP issuer craft a document that met basic professional standards for quality through attention to detail and exacting editing.

Sure, carriers will respond (sometimes) to poorly crafted bids, but they do so with a somewhat diminished opinion of the requesting company. This is only natural – we all tend to be editors and evaluators, especially of documents that require time and effort to prepare a response.

What separates the successful from the unsuccessful RFPs? This is what we have observed.

Shippers throughout North America are trying to cope with the tight freight capacity that has been driven by Covid-19, truck and driver shortages, freight embargoes and the surge in eCommerce activity. While many manufacturers and distributors conduct annual and bi-annual freight bids, this methodology is proving to be too static and rigid for shippers experiencing truck capacity shortages on certain corridors. Companies that rely on the spot market for carriers are likely experiencing rate spikes and inconsistent truck availability on an ongoing basis.

There are several solutions to address this problem. First, it is important for shippers to lock in capacity, market pricing and service commitments as part of their annual bidding process. As I have mentioned in prior blogs, these are opportunities to have “heart to heart” discussions with one’s core carriers. Certain carriers may be willing to sign multi-year agreements that provide their customers with “peace of mind” on key traffic lanes.

Second, despite these assurances, some carriers will not provide the expected capacity. They may not be able to retain or hire enough drivers to meet their commitments. In other cases, carriers will identify higher paying freight and divert their capacity to other customers. In other cases, they may wish to allocate some capacity to high-paying spot market loads. In these cases, shippers should have a mini bid methodology which they can quickly deploy to find replacement carriers.

In order to expeditiously go to market, companies should:

During the wild and woolly 2018, freight bid activity subsided as shippers searched for capacity wherever they could find it. As we have seen, 2018 was an anomaly, a one of a kind. As we pass the mid-point of 2019, the dynamics of the freight market have changed significantly from the prior year. Business volumes are strong but not at the levels of 2018. To meet shipper demands, many carriers added capacity to their truck fleets. The theme of 2019 is more capacity chasing more moderate freight volumes. What does this all mean from the perspective of freight rates?

Looking at the results of the most recent Morgan Stanley Truckload Sentiment Survey, only 14% of the respondents consider the current truckload demand to be strong while 62% describe it as neutral (supply and demand in balance) and 24% consider it to be weak. Three months down the road, 67% of the respondents expect truckload demand to be neutral while 15% expect it to be weak; only 18% expect freight demand to be strong.

Forty-one percent of respondents perceive truckload capacity to be abundant while 50% consider it to be neutral; only 9% categorize capacity as tight. Three months from now, as we enter the fall shipping season, 25% expect capacity to be abundant while 61% still expect it to be neutral; only 14% expect capacity to be tight.

The New Year has started off with a bang. With the stock market at record levels, unemployment at historic lows in Canada and the United States and a new U.S. tax bill that promises to put extra dollars in the hands of American purchasers, it is not surprising that consumer confidence is at a high. The strong GDP numbers reflect that people are spending money again. It is no wonder that the Dow Transportation index is also at record levels (https://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/07/01/dow-jones-transportation-average-close-to-record-high/ ). This is great news for trucking companies.

December was also a historic month for the trucking industry. The electronic logging device (ELD) mandate took effect at the end of December. This measure which is designed to increase driver safety, is projected to restrict the availability of truck capacity in the United States. Of course, a driver shortage has already made capacity tight. Companies that comply with the mandate must work within specific time windows. Those that don’t conform to the mandate risk being pulled off the road, over time, as compliance becomes stricter.

The result is that freight rates are projected to increase in 2018. In a letter to customers (https://www.sdcexec.com/warehousing/news/12371547/jb-hunt-tells-customers-to-budget-for-10-percent-cost-increase ), JB Hunt suggested that freight rates may increase by as much as ten percent or more. At the Surface Transportation Summit held in Toronto in October 2017, John Larkin, Managing Director of Research, Stifel Financial Corp. shared the following rate increase projections with the audience.