Canada has just gone through its own version of the insurrection that took place in Washington, DC. on January 6, 2021. Unlike the one-day invasion of the U.S. Capitol building, the Canadian protests were extended over 23 days, in multiple locations, and may not be over. The Protest label is truly not correct; the more appropriate label is an Occupation. Here are a few personal reflections.

Why did these protests take place?

The U.S. protest was intended to overturn the November 2020 election. Canada’s protests were initially directed at the country’s vaccine policies, specifically the vaccine and masking mandates.

The motivation of the so-called “Freedom Convoy” was a piece of federal regulation that requires unvaccinated Canadian truckers to isolate for fourteen days upon returning to Canada from the United States. Unvaccinated foreign truckers, however, are not allowed into the country. Despite 90 percent of Canadian truckers being vaccinated, the support of the Teamsters union and the Canadian Trucking Alliance, this policy energized a vocal minority on the Right.

Fifty-one days after taking office, President Biden signed into law the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Relief Bill, one of the most important pieces of legislation in the past 50 years. The bill is significant in many ways.

It will put money directly into the hands of lower- and middle-income Americans, those most in need of support. The bill directs $1,400 payouts to millions of Americans and continues unemployment checks for millions more as the country pulls itself out of the economic devastation of a pandemic that has killed more than 530,000 of its citizens. As itemized by Eric Levitz in New York magazine, the bill will have a broad range of impacts.

• A family of four with one working parent and one unemployed one will have $12,460 more in government benefits to help them make ends meet.

• The poorest single mothers in America will receive at least $3,000 more per child in government support, along with $1,400 for themselves and additional funds for nutritional assistance and rental aid.

There is considerable euphoria in the trucking industry these days. The July 2020 issue of Broughton Capital Truck Freight Barometers® is entitled “Fasten Your Seatbelts! The Economy & Truck Marketplace are Poised to Surprise to the Upside.” The issue contains the following thoughts.

“In all three modes, the Broughton Capital Truck Freight Barometers® are reflecting an environment in which demand exceeds capacity by a significant margin . . . the underlying fundamentals have never improved this dramatically in such a short period of time. The rapid, intense improvement runs counter to typical seasonality, making the gains even more impressive. Normally, July demand is softer than June . . . This year's Q3 trends, however, are shaping up to be exceptional in every way.” The report goes on to say the following.

“Consistent with our very bullish outlook for the U.S. domestic economy, the demand side of the equation is expanding robustly. Meanwhile, the capacity side of the equation has been constrained, which magnifies the imbalance and contributes to an extraordinary surge in spot rates. Today's spot rate levels are poised to exceed contract rates. As spot rates had fallen in April to record low levels, both nominally and in terms of the gap between spot and contract rates, the meteoric rise in spot rates over the last 13 weeks has been even more spectacular.”

Similarly, the Morgan Stanley Freight (MSFI) Index “has improved sequentially and outperformed seasonality for the 7th time in a row . . . On absolute terms, the index now sits at the highest level for mid-August in over a decade . . . Our straight-line forecast now projects 2020 ending the year nearly on par with 2017 levels, the highest YE level on record.” There is encouraging news on the Covid-19 front. This week reported new cases of the virus in the United States have dropped into the 30,000 to 40,000 range and reported deaths have dropped into the 400 to 500 range. Do these numbers signal a strong fall and winter season for the North American freight transportation industry? Here are a few thoughts to consider.

In my previous blog (https://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/economic-recovery-and-the-future-of-the-freight-transportation-industry-part-1), I suggested that the economic recovery during the balance of this year will likely have a number of peaks and valleys that reflect the spread of Covid-19. In this blog I will explore some of Covid-19’s impacts on freight transportation.

The latest economic data “most closely resembles a horror movie with Q1 GDP posting the worst numbers since the global financial crisis, nearly a quarter of workers now unemployed, and durable goods showing the worst two-month streak since data collection began,” stated Brett F. Ewing, Chief Market Strategist, First Franklin Financial Services.  The job market halted its pandemic-induced collapse in May as employers brought back millions of workers and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined. Tens of millions of American workers are still out of work, and the unemployment rate, which fell to 13.3 percent from 14.7 percent in April, remains worse than in any previous postwar recession. All the same, economists warn that it will take far longer for the economy to climb out of the hole than it did to fall into it.

The gains in May indicated that the Canada Revenue Agency, the U.S. Congress and the Federal Reserve had at least partly succeeded in limiting permanent economic damage by providing trillions of dollars in assistance to households and businesses. But that aid is now in jeopardy in the U.S., and economists warned that there was no guarantee the job market would continue to improve without it.

Even as the economy shows signs of revival, the United States is confirming more than 20,000 new coronavirus cases and 1000 deaths a day, with counts rising in at least 21 states. The protests over the past three weeks have brought thousands of people to the streets across North America, most close to one another. While many protestors are wearing masks, the lack of physical distancing will likely produce increased virus case counts in many locations.

As of May 2, 32 U.S. states and 5 Canadian provinces (https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/reopening-canada-provinces-ontario-quebec-saskatchewan-alberta) have announced plans to reopen businesses on a phased basis. Each state and province has developed back to work guidelines to manage the process. These actions are being taken even though Covid-19 is a very contagious virus with 1.1 million reported cases and 65,000 deaths in the US and 55,000 cases and almost 3400 deaths in Canada. Currently there is no cure and a cure is at least a year or more away.

Government Health Care Guidelines

While there are various sets of guidelines that have been published, those developed by New York State and by the Province of Ontario (https://www.ontario.ca/page/resources-prevent-covid-19-workplace?_ga=2.258615434.1461890914.1588269926-1610310933.1584035138 ) are particularly thoughtful and will be referred to in this blog. The NY state document stipulates that to open their economy, hospital and ICU capacity should not exceed 70%. Moreover, the rate of transmissions should be less than 1.1 (i.e. one person infects less than 1.1 people). Adhering to these guidelines will limit the possibility of hospitals being overwhelmed by a surge of new cases. The CDC (Centre for Disease Control) in the United States suggests that there should be a 14-day decline in Covid-19 hospitalizations immediately preceding the lifting of restrictions. Should the number of infections begin to escalate, restrictions should be put back in place. Note that some states are lifting restrictions while infections are rising.

The NY state plan stipulates that a testing regimen should be activated with a daily objective of 30 tests per 1000 people. There should also be a satisfactory number of testing sites in each location; there should be an immediate turnaround on testing results to limit the spread. New York State suggests that an advertising program be created to educate the public about the need and the process of being tested.

As we watch the Covid-19 pandemic unfold, in real time, on our television and computer screens, we are observing major weaknesses in many of our essential institutions. Despite the warning from China at the beginning of this year, North Americans were unprepared for this pandemic. Before it even began, pandemic readiness work triggered by HIV and SARS epidemics had already been abandoned or scaled back for political rather than health concerns, leaving all of us vulnerable. Then there was a failure of the U.S. president to listen to the warning signals, to take responsibility for this crisis, to activate policies to produce protective equipment, to implement a national stay at home policy, and to ensure there were adequate tests to identify those who have Covid-19 and those who do not.

Our health care systems were overwhelmed by a lack of planning and resources. Our grocery and household goods supply chains were not ready for the huge upswing in online shopping and for the surge in demand for many items.

The result of these failures is that the United States is now the epicenter of the virus. Canada is also being hit hard. The pandemic is forcing millions of Canadians and Americans, other than those designated as providing essential services, to say at home to help reduce the spread of Covid-19. This necessary policy is causing the ongoing shutdown of many businesses and a loss of millions of jobs. As outlined in this article in Foreign Policy (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/09/unemployment-coronavirus-pandemic-normal-economy-is-never-coming-back/), the “normal economy is never coming back.”

We are already seeing significant changes in our everyday lives. Many of us are becoming proficient at meeting with our family, friends and colleagues via a video conference. This trend will likely become more prevalent in our business lives after the crisis. Many people are becoming more skilled at purchasing groceries and supplies online and are taking the opportunity to upgrade their abilities in banking from home, home schooling, personal fitness, hair cutting and in a variety of other areas.

As seniors with underlying health issues, my wife and I have made the decision to commit to buying all groceries and supplies online, until the risks of this virus are greatly diminished. For the past three weeks, we have been testing a variety of online grocery service providers. This is what we have learned.

Grocery shoppers and online service providers were caught off-guard by the speed with which Covid-19 has changed purchasing behavior for both online and in-store grocery shoppers. Empty shelves and “out of stock” notifications have become the norm as self-quarantining, “panic buying,” hoarding, and the closure of restaurants and bars have dramatically altered buyer purchasing volumes. Therefore, rather than critique any specific online providers under these circumstances, I will share a few general observations on some of the challenges my wife and I have faced and offer some opportunities for improvement.

1. Expand the Range of Delivery Options

For one of Canada’ leading online grocery providers, it is nearly impossible to select a date and time for a delivery. They provide a one-month window usually with no available time slots. When you call the 1-800 line for assistance, it is always busy. You can sit at your computer all day and wait for a time slot to become available. That is not a good use of one’s time and is very stressful in these already stressful times.

These are amazing times, but this is not the first crisis that many of us have experienced. Having worked in the freight transportation industry for over 35 years, I have seen ice storms, snowstorms, SARS, mainframe crashes, tornados that have ripped the roof off buildings, the raiding of employees and customers and other challenging incidents. I have been the leader and observed other leaders guide their teams through these types of events. During this Coronavirus crisis, we have had the opportunity to observe the leaders of the U.S. government and medical emergency teams lead America through the epidemic. What are some lessons that we can all take from the events to date?

Lesson 1: Create and Maintain a Crisis Management Leader, Team and Plan

The White House had a pandemic team, but the leader left and was not replaced; the team was disbanded. These types of crises don’t happen every day; nevertheless, it is very helpful to have a leader, team and written plan for the major crises that can be anticipated. In certain parts of North America, one can anticipate a hurricane, tornado, ice storm or other type of natural or man-made disaster. The president reportedly ignored early warnings of the severity of the virus and grew angry at a CDC official who in February warned that an outbreak was inevitable.

Coronaviruses are a group of viruses that cause diseases in mammals and birds. In humans, coronaviruses cause respiratory tract infections that are typically mild, such as the common cold, though rarer forms such as SARS, MERS and COVID-19 can be lethal. Most coronaviruses aren't dangerous. But In early 2020, after a December 2019 outbreak in China, the World Health Organization (WHO) identified a new type, 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which can be fatal. The organization named the disease it causes COVID-19.

The outbreak quickly moved from China around the world. It spreads the same way other coronaviruses do - - - through person-to-person contact. Symptoms can show up anywhere from 2 to 14 days after exposure. Early on, they're a lot like the common cold. You might notice:

• Fever

• Cough