The American election process is a long, complex and byzantine exercise that is very puzzling this year. After an extensive set of primaries, Americans selected two candidates, one from each major party, that are widely disliked. Unlike President Obama, John McCain or Mitt Romney, who were respected, this year’s candidates do not command the same admiration. This is the first puzzle. With so many options to choose from, why did Americans choose these two individuals?
Donald Trump, during this election campaign, has managed to offend women, African Americans, immigrants, Latinos, veterans, gays and lesbians, disabled people and others. Women represent approximately 50% of the US population. African Americans represent 13.2% of the population while Latinos represent 17.2%. Some simple math would suggest that Mr. Trump, the Republican candidate, should be trailing Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate, by huge numbers. The fact that they are only separated by a few percentage points in the most recent polls suggests that there is second puzzle. Why are so many women, African Americans, Latinos, veterans, gays and lesbians, disabled people and other groups voting for Trump?
Another element of this election that is quite different from previous elections is that Donald Trump, a representative of the Republican party has expressed views on various issues that are not consistent with Republican values. In fact, his policies on immigration, NATO, trade and other key issues have been at odds with Speaker Ryan, Senate Majority Leader McConnell and other Republican leaders. Moreover, Trump’s business practices (i.e. Trump University, not allowing African Americans to move into his buildings) have also raised major questions about Mr. Trump’s suitability for office. Many Republican officials and leaders have not endorsed Donald Trump or actually distanced themselves from him. This is a third puzzle of this election year. Why are so many Republican voters, who support some of the more traditional Republican policies, supporting this candidate this year.
The answer seems to be as follows. Hillary Clinton is not well liked. She is viewed as secretive and possibly a bit devious when it comes to the use of a private e mail server for government communication purposes; questions remain about her independence when it comes to her family Foundation that has ties to key people and groups around the world. But these concerns hardly explain how a few days before the election, the polls are so tight. To solve these puzzles requires a closer look at the structure of the states, demographics and the nature of American political beliefs and values.
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