These are amazing times, but this is not the first crisis that many of us have experienced. Having worked in the freight transportation industry for over 35 years, I have seen ice storms, snowstorms, SARS, mainframe crashes, tornados that have ripped the roof off buildings, the raiding of employees and customers and other challenging incidents. I have been the leader and observed other leaders guide their teams through these types of events. During this Coronavirus crisis, we have had the opportunity to observe the leaders of the U.S. government and medical emergency teams lead America through the epidemic. What are some lessons that we can all take from the events to date?

Lesson 1: Create and Maintain a Crisis Management Leader, Team and Plan

The White House had a pandemic team, but the leader left and was not replaced; the team was disbanded. These types of crises don’t happen every day; nevertheless, it is very helpful to have a leader, team and written plan for the major crises that can be anticipated. In certain parts of North America, one can anticipate a hurricane, tornado, ice storm or other type of natural or man-made disaster. The president reportedly ignored early warnings of the severity of the virus and grew angry at a CDC official who in February warned that an outbreak was inevitable.

Coronaviruses are a group of viruses that cause diseases in mammals and birds. In humans, coronaviruses cause respiratory tract infections that are typically mild, such as the common cold, though rarer forms such as SARS, MERS and COVID-19 can be lethal. Most coronaviruses aren't dangerous. But In early 2020, after a December 2019 outbreak in China, the World Health Organization (WHO) identified a new type, 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which can be fatal. The organization named the disease it causes COVID-19.

The outbreak quickly moved from China around the world. It spreads the same way other coronaviruses do - - - through person-to-person contact. Symptoms can show up anywhere from 2 to 14 days after exposure. Early on, they're a lot like the common cold. You might notice:

• Fever

• Cough

Whether you obtain your news from TV, newspapers or social media, it is hard to escape the drumbeat of downbeat updates about the North American and global economies. The negative news is puzzling to those people who monitor some of the leading, and still positive, economic indicators.

As noted in a recent paper by Jim Allworth, Co-Chair of the RBC Global Portfolio Committee, 5 of the 6 most commonly tracked economic indices on the bank’s Recession Scorecard are still positive. These include:

Unemployment claims

This has been a challenging month. Hurricane Harvey caused huge damage in southeast Texas and Hurricane Irma is expected to cause major damage to Florida and the east coast of the United States (as it did to several islands in the Caribbean). We should not forget the recent forest fires in British Columbia and California. Tornadoes, earthquakes, and ice storms seem to be occurring with much greater regularity and ferocity. These natural disasters have been very disruptive to the smooth flow of people, goods and services for many companies. They have also made life difficult for supply chain professionals.

Of course, disruptions to supply chains can come from factors other than weather or natural disasters. Quality control problems, piracy, export restrictions, and computer system hacking are just some of the factors that can come into play. To make matters worse, most of these disruptions are unpredictable in timing and scope. Each shipper has to make an assessment of the potential risks to their supply chains and make recovery plans.

According to Patthira Siriwan, senior project manager for supply chain development in North America for Damco, the combined logistics brand for A.P. Moller-Maersk, supply chain risks can be categorized into five groups: operational, social, natural, economy and political/legal. Damco defines supply chain risk management as “attempts to identify risks and quantify their commercial financial exposures as well as mitigate potential disruptions at each node and lane in the supply chain.” Supply chain risk models can vary from the rudimentary to the sophisticated. In the case of the latter, complex “what if” analyses can be performed. This allows the shipper and/or receiver to identify potential trouble spots and map out alternative supply chain strategies.

In an article in the Journal of Commerce, Siriwan indicated that shippers tend to focus on “factors with the biggest impact on their supply chain, such as on-time performance, supplier lead time variability and carriers by origin or trade lane.” Shippers need to perform some sort of probability analysis on the impacts of each potential disruption, with a particular focus on alternative vendors, carriers, origin points and ports and destination ports. Looking ahead to the balance of 2017, there are some major predictable (tropical storm Jose) and unpredictable risks that could drive up supply chain and transportation costs. The latter could include the impact on fuel costs as a result of unrest in Venezuela or war in the Middle East or war with North Korea.