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The 2022 Puzzle - More Questions than Answers

Posted by on in Economy

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As 2021 draws to a close, many pundits are providing their forecasts for 2022. As I reflect on the past two years, and look ahead to 2022, it is difficult to predict, with certainty, how the New Year is likely to unfold. In fact, unlike prior years, there are more questions than answers. Here are a few items to consider.

Covid-19

Over 200 million Americans and over 20 million Canadians have received their Covid vaccine. Booster shots are now widely available and the eligibility for these shots will be expanded in the days ahead. Vaccines are now available for children. With vaccine, masks and social distancing mandates, many businesses and schools are now open.

Just looking at the traffic on the roads today, as compared to six months or a year ago, life for many is returning to normal, or at least a new and improved state of normal. Early reports on the Omicron virus are suggesting that this mutation may be less dangerous to our health as compared to previous versions. This signals to many that the worst of Covid is behind us.

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The 2019 Surface Transportation Summit took place last week at the International Centre in Toronto. The event was co-hosted by Newcom Inc. and Dan Goodwill and Associates, in partnership with the Ontario Trucking Association, the Freight Management Association of Canada and the CSCMP Toronto Roundtable.   Hundreds of shippers and carriers attended the event to learn from the various presentations and panel discussions and to network with other industry professionals.

Josh Nye, Senior Economist, Royal Bank of Canada, kicked off the day by sharing that the global economy has lost momentum, particularly in the industrial sector. Canadian manufacturing has not declined as fast in the United States. Protectionist trade policies are having an impact and are having a downside risk on the outlook. The yield curve is pointing to a heightened risk of recession in the next year or two. At this point RBC expects slower growth, but not a recession.

To maintain economic growth, the banks have shifted to easing monetary policy. The transport sector has slowed alongside industrial production; confidence has declined recently. A strong labour market has supported income growth and given consumer spending a slight boost. Similarly, business sentiment has taken a hit; firms are still planning to invest but capexes will take a hit. Non-energy exports have lost momentum.

David Ross, Managing Director, Global Transportation & Logistics, Stifel Financial Corp. spoke about the “mini freight recession” in the United States this year. He highlighted that the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing Index has dipped below 50, signaling a contraction in production. Strong employment and consumer sentiment have boosted retail shipping. We will need to monitor this index to see if this signals a downturn in the economy.

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The 2019 Surface Transportation Summit will take place at the International Centre in Toronto on October 16. Canada’s leading freight conference will try to make sense of the roller coaster that Canadian shippers and carriers have experienced over the past couple of years.

Josh Nye, Senior Economist, Royal Bank of Canada, will kick off the conference with his assessment of the current state of the Canadian and U.S. economies and share his insights on where they are headed in 2020. Two other panelists, David Ross, Managing Director, Global Transportation & Logistics, Stifel Financial Corp. and Stephen Laskowski, President, Canadian Trucking Alliance & Ontario Trucking Association, will provide their outlook on the state of the freight transportation industry in the U.S. and Canada. Following these presentations, Scott Tilley, President, Tandet Group and Anna Petrova, Supply Chain Director, Canada, Conagra Brands, representatives of a leading shipper and trucking organization, will share their perspectives on where the industry is going.

The next panel will include business leaders from five segments of the Canadian freight industry: small parcel and last mile delivery, LTL and truckload transportation, shipping by rail, fleet equipment leasing and real estate. Lucas Murua, Senior VP of Sales and Marketing, Dicom Transportation Group, Doug Munro, President and owner, M-O Freightworks, Al Boughton, Co-Founder, Trailcon Leasing, Tim Roulston, Director of Sales and Truckload Operations, Intermodal, CN Rail and Mark Cascagnette, President, Managing Partner, Lee & Associates, Toronto will share their thoughts on where their segment of the industry is going.

The always popular Shipper / Carrier Roundtable will feature Taimy Cruz, Director of Logistics, Broadgrain Commodities, Sylvie Messier, Corporate Transportation and Customs Manager, Ipex, Rob Nichols, Managing Director of Domestic Intermodal, CP Rail, Norm Sneyd, Vice President, Business Development, Bison Transport, Imtiaz Kermali, Vice President, eShipper and Joe Lombardo, Director or Freight, Transportation and Logistics, Purolator who will debate some of the most important issues facing transportation professionals in the Canadian freight industry.

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The Surface Transportation Summit celebrated its 10th anniversary at the International Centre on October 10. The event addressed the profound changes that have taken hold of the Transportation industry in 2018 and where they will likely lead us in 2019.

Paul Ferley, Assistant Chief Economist, Royal Bank of Canada, kicked off the day by highlighting that the US economy is operating beyond capacity. The U.S. is stimulating an already hot economy with tax cuts and low interest rates. As we look ahead to 2019, he noted that the level of future growth will depend on the actions of economic policy-makers.

Rising oil prices, still accommodative monetary policy and strong U.S. growth have moved the Canadian economy to capacity. The new USMCA (formerly NAFTA) trade agreement has created stability although with tariffs on steel and aluminum, and a president who can act erratically, this could change at any time.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s objectives will likely be to try to moderate the level of activity. The concern is that President will try to boost an economy that is already over capacity. In Canada, a low dollar coupled with rising oil prices and ongoing increases in interest rates by the Government of Canada are expected to moderate growth.

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Ten years ago, my colleagues at Newcom Business Media and Dan Goodwill & Associates set out to create a high quality educational and networking event for Transportation Professionals and Decision-Makers. From humble beginnings, the conference has evolved into Canada’s premier event in the Surface Transportation Industry. The Surface Transportation Summit now attracts hundreds of Logistics executives, Transportation Industry owners and leaders, vendors to this industry, government officials, consultants, educators, and students.

To celebrate the tenth anniversary of the Summit, the organizers, in partnership with the Freight Management Association of Canada, the Canadian Trucking Alliance and the CSCMP Toronto Roundtable have created an agenda that encompasses the most important issues of the day and assembled an elite group of moderators and panelists to address these topics. As always, the conference will begin with a discussion of the top forces that have shaped the economies and the freight industry in Canada and the United States in 2018 and will power it in 2019. Paul Ferley, Assistant Chief Economist, Royal Bank of Canada, will provide an overview of the direction of the Canadian economy. He will be followed by Walter Spracklin, Managing Director, RBC Capital Markets and David Ross, Research Managing Director, Stifel Financial Corp who will discuss the trucking and rail industries in Canada and the United States. This will be followed by a moderator led discussion with Paul Roach, President & CEO, Belmont Meat Products and Scott Smith, President, JD Smith & Sons who will share their insights on the economic projections for 2019.

The will be followed by an inside look at New Freight Transportation Technologies for Manufacturers, Distributors, and Retailers. In brief interviews, Brian Hodgson, VP, Transportation Strategy, Descartes Systems will provide some thoughts on Shipment Visibility, Dave Brajkovich, Chief Technology Officer, Polaris Transportation Group, and Iliana Oris Valiente, Managing Director, Accenture | Founder at ColliderX Blockchain R&D Hub, will discuss the Blockchain movement, Martin Abadi, Counsel, Borden Ladner Gervais LLP will provide his insights on Connected Trucks and Charles Fallon, Principal, Supply Chain Intelligence will talk about Warehouse Automation.

The Shipper-Carrier Roundtable has always been a popular track. This year Dan Einwechter, Chairman and CEO, Challenger Group of Companies, Tracy Raimondo, Vice President, Logistics, Normandin Transit, John Ferguson, President, Purolator, Andrew Fuller, Assistant Vice President, Domestic Intermodal, CN Rail, Geoffrey Joseph, President & CEO, Joseph Haulage Canada, Martin Pede, Manager Zinc Sales, Hudson Bay Mining and Fiona Renzi-Fantin, VP, Supply Chain, Maple Leaf Foods will debate some of the hot issues facing shippers and carriers in 2018.

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This week President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum products from Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. The rationale was that this was done for reasons of National Security. In view of the very modest size of Canada’s military and the longstanding, peaceful relationship between the two countries, this explanation is ludicrous.

We are also being led to believe that the President apparently took these actions to protect jobs in the steel and aluminum industries, to correct what he deems as unfair trade practices by other countries and to bully Canada and Mexico into making concessions on the new NAFTA agreement that has been under negotiation for many months. Again, these are weak reasons to damage the strongest trade relationship between any two nations in the world.

In the case of NAFTA, the most recent sticking point has become the “sunset clause.” Vice President Mike Pence advised Prime Minister Trudeau last week that he'd have to accept this clause, which would make the trade agreement subject to renegotiation every five years. Trudeau said he couldn't accept the terms. The sunset clause is just one sticking point. The U.S. is also seeking changes to the "rules of origin" that govern how much of a car must be manufactured in North American to avoid import taxes in the three countries that make up NAFTA.

As a Canadian businessperson, I have two messages for Prime Minister Trudeau, push back hard against these bullying tactics and hit President Trump where it hurts. As the world has seen, persuasion, charm, diplomacy, and logical reasoning don’t work with this president. The fact is that both French President Macron and German Chancellor Merkel, two long-time allies, went to the White House in recent weeks to reason with him. Their visits appear to have had no impact.

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Donald Trump created high expectations as he became president in January 2017. These expectations were fueled by his extensive list of campaign promises (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/01/22/here-are-76-of-donald-trumps-many-campaign-promises/?utm_term=.bb0ed2101fa1 ).

While Trump made much of his “Make America Great Again” slogan, one can only look back on the past year as a major failure. While a high quality conservative judge was appointed to the Supreme Court and some executive orders were signed, there are few other successes to point to. Despite having control of all three branches, the Republicans could not pass any major legislation during the past 10 months of 2017. America withdrew from the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement, a major 12 country trade pact and the Paris Climate Change accord, that has been signed off by every other country other than the United States. While these actions may appeal to the Trump base, they are not creating jobs in America.

Four emerging developments threaten to stifle the Trump presidency. They are the passage of a Tax Reform bill, the Muller investigation into Russia meddling into the U.S. election, America’s threat to pull out of NAFTA. and the sexual harassment scandals that are emerging in the political, entertainment and media sectors.

The Tax Reform Bill

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In my last blog, I provided an overview of Canada’s economy and demographics. In this blog, I will outline the importance of trade to Canada, and the United States, and then touch on some of the key variables that facilitate the trading process.

Canada has been a major trading nation for many years. Well before NAFTA was signed in 1994, Canada and the United States were major trading partners. As pointed out in the last blog, Canada possesses many raw materials that are in high demand throughout the world. With such a small population, Canada is not able to consume many of the raw materials that it produces. As a result, 58% of Canada’s exports consist of pulp and paper products, energy supplies (i.e. oil, coal and gas), minerals, food products, fish, seafood and fertilizers. By contrast, 38% of Canada’s exports are manufactured goods, primarily machinery, automotive parts, aerospace and aviation products, equipment, chemicals, plastics and information technology. Ontario and Quebec contain the largest centers for manufactured goods. Western Canada is a key producer of coal, grain, oil, natural gas and potash.

Canada – U.S. Trade

NAFTA has just entered its 23rd year. It was designed to expedite the trading process between Canada, the United States and Mexico. There are $750 billion in goods and services traded annually between Canada and the U.S. Exports represent 30% of Canada’s GDP. The United States is Canada’s largest trading partner; it receives 73% of Canada’s exports and 63% of its imports. Canada receives 23% of U.S. exports and 17% of its imports. Canada is largest export market for 35 of the 50 US states.

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On July 1, Canada celebrated its 149th birthday. Just prior to Canada Day, I had the privilege of speaking to a group of industry professionals on the topic of the Canadian freight market during a Stifel conference call. For those of you trying to learn more about America’s neighbor to the north, this and subsequent blogs will capture the highlights from the presentation.

Canada has a population of 36.3 million people, about one tenth the size of the United States and similar in size to the population of the state of California. The majority of the population lives within a 200 mile radius of the US border, the longest unprotected border in the world. About 20 million Canadians live in the major metropolitan locations of Montreal, Toronto, Ottawa, Hamilton, Edmonton, Quebec City, Winnipeg and Vancouver. Canada has the eleventh largest economy in the world.

From a freight perspective, the country can be divided into 4 distinct regions. Each region has its own industries and transportation challenges.

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The 2016 Surface Transportation Summit will take place at the International Centre in Toronto on October 13. The event will be co-hosted by Newcom Business Media and Dan Goodwill & Associates in partnership with the Ontario Trucking Association and the Freight Management Association of Canada. There will be some exciting changes this year.

As always, the conference will be kicked off by a look ahead to the Economy in the year ahead. Carlos Gomes, Senior Economist, Scotiabank will share his overview of 2016 and make some projections for the coming year. For the first time, the Summit will showcase two of North America’s top freight industry investment analysts. Walter Spracklin, Managing Director, Capital Markets, RBC Investment Securities, will offer his insights on the freight transportation industry in Canada. John Larkin, Managing Director of Research, at Stifel Financial Corp., will provide a status report on the current state of the freight industry in the United States.

Wendell Erb, President & CEO, The Erb Group of Companies will provide some commentary on the economy from a trucking company perspective. He will be joined by a Rob Bryson, recently retired Vice-President at Parrish & Heimbecker, who will provide observations and perspectives from a shipper’s perspective.

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This week’s visit to Washington by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, his family and his Canadian delegation was certainly one of the high points in U.S. – Canada relations in many years. It brought back memories of President Reagan and PM Mulroney singing “When Irish Eyes are Smiling” in Quebec City many years ago.

Watching the leaders toast each other and seeing some concrete agreements come out of the meetings was certainly a sign that Canada-US relations are back on a positive track. The fact that President Obama hosted a state dinner for Mr. Trudeau, the first state dinner for a Canadian Prime Minister in 19 years, was a very positive indicator that Canada is back in the good graces of its most important ally and trading partner.

Unfortunately for Canada, Barack Obama is in the last year of his presidency. At this point, the presidential race is pretty much down to four candidates, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Donald Trump and Ted Cruz for the Republicans. As you listen to and study the rhetoric from these candidates, and sense the mood of the American electorate, there is much to worry about.

The Democrats

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Some KPIs to Monitor the Transportation Industry

Posted by on in Economy

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There are a host of economic indicators that provide economists, academics and transportation professionals with insights into how the general economy is performing. Data on gross domestic product, imports, exports, housing starts, stock market trends, consumer confidence and unemployment levels are barometers of the level of economic activity in a particular country. These indicators, while somewhat indirect, highlight trends in the economy. Declines in unemployment levels indicate more people are working and as result buying more goods and services. Increases in housing starts suggest that a growing number or people are buying homes, furniture, appliances and carpets. These indices correlate somewhat with freight transportation activity levels. The same applies to other measurements of economic activity.

However, these types of general economic indicators, while helpful, don’t necessarily provide direction as to the specific segments of the economy experiencing the strongest or weakest growth. They don’t shed light on whether there are higher levels of growth in dry van, refrigerated or flat bed traffic.

As a result, transportation professionals need to turn to other indices to understand where the freight industry is going. Some of these measurements are outlined below.

1. ISM Managers’ Index (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ )

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As we approach 2016, there are a number of forces that are shaping the economics of Freight Transportation. Here are a few to consider.

The US Economy and the US Dollar

The US economy is providing a number of mixed signals in December of 2015. Unemployment is at only five percent. Economic growth, while sluggish, has been able to generate a consistent 200,000 new jobs a month. But some other indices don’t look so good.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI Index of economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the first time in 36 months, since November 2012, while the overall economy grew for the 78th consecutive month. The November PMI® registered 48.6 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the October reading of 50.1 percent and below the 50 percent mark that signals growth. The New Orders Index registered 48.9 percent, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the reading of 52.9 percent in October. The Production Index registered 49.2 percent, 3.7 percentage points below the October reading of 52.9 percent. Ten out of 18 manufacturing industries reported contraction in November, with lower new orders, production and raw materials inventories accounting for the overall softness in November.

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The 2015 Surface Transportation Summit (www.surfacetransportationsummit.com) will be held at the Mississauga Convention Centre on October 14. We are delighted to report that the event has a new partner, the Freight Management Association of Canada. Here is an overview of the day.

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In President Obama’s State of the Union message that he delivered to a joint session of congress on Tuesday, January 20, he stated that the “shadow of the (economic) crisis has passed” in the United States. The very next day, the Governor of the Bank of Canada dropped interest rates by 0.25 percent “to stave off emerging risks such as weak inflation and a real-estate downturn.” The rate cut, the first by a Group of Seven country in the face of oil prices that have tumbled to about $46 (U.S.) a barrel from $110 last June, caught financial markets off guard. The Canadian dollar plummeted about 1.5 cents to close at 81.07 cents.

This raises a number of questions. First, are the economies of Canada and the United States that different? As two large trading partners that share the largest unprotected border in the world, why has the U.S. signaled that the recession has passed while Canada has highlighted its fears of falling backward into a downturn?

It is interesting that this announcement comes as the manufacturing sector in eastern Canada revs up. Anecdotal evidence from truckers (in eastern Canada) suggests that freight volumes are strong for the month of January, stronger than in prior years. Why make this move and why make it now?

There are two ways to frame the move by Steve Poloz, the Governor of the Bank of Canada. One could look at yesterday’s announcement as an act of desperation, as the sign of a country that blinked first in the face of the challenges facing the energy industry. While we have been receiving hints of increases in interest rates for some time, this action runs contrary to expectations. It may signal a worry, possibly based on early reports of layoffs and cancelled capital expenditures in the energy sector, that the Bank of Canada had to do an “about face” and take dramatic action to counter this potential threat to the economy. Of course, this also signals Canada’s overdependence on energy, that we have two many “eggs in one basket” and that our economy is nowhere near as diversified as the American economy.

Clearly the quick drop in the value of Canadian dollar is unsettling and may not instill confidence in the Canadian government, the BOC, our currency or the Canadian economy. The central bank warned that lower oil prices would take a sizable bite out of economic growth in 2015, delay a return to full capacity and hurt business investment – a trend that has already triggered layoffs and spending cuts in Alberta’s oil-and-gas industry. Canada’s two-speed economy is undergoing a major reversal of fortunes, with the once-booming energy sector fading while the manufacturing sector is rebounding, Mr. Poloz said. Economist David Madani of Capital Economics said that “clearly, [the BoC] is far more worried about a severe housing market correction.”

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