On Monday, November 26, 2018, General Motors announced that it will be closing five plants in North America in 2019, four in the USA and one in Canada. In addition to the closures, 6000 hourly workers and 8000 salaried employees will lose their jobs. “The actions we are taking today continue our transformation to be highly agile, resilient and profitable, while giving us the flexibility to invest in the future,” said GM Chairman and CEO Mary Barra. “We recognize the need to stay in front of changing market conditions and customer preferences to position our company for long-term success.”

The press release goes on to say that “GM has recently invested in newer, highly efficient vehicle architectures, especially in trucks, crossovers and SUVs. GM now intends to prioritize future vehicle investments in its next-generation battery-electric architectures. As the current vehicle portfolio is optimized, it is expected that more than 75 percent of GM’s global sales volume will come from five vehicle architectures by early next decade.”

Thirty-five years ago, I began my career in the trucking industry by working for a company that derived fifty percent of its revenues from the automotive industry. My company worked directly with these plants. I have had the opportunity to visit the GM Oshawa facility on multiple occasions. While there are only 2300 hourly workers that are employed there now, this is an iconic facility in the province of Ontario and in Canada as a whole. This plant has been a symbol to Canadians, for a century, of the importance of the automobile manufacturing and assembly industry.

This has been a remarkable year for the Surface Freight Transportation industry in North America. Here are some of the top stories for the past 12 months.

1. The Booming Economy

The booming economy was the single biggest story in the Freight Transportation industry in 2018. After years of steady but modest growth following the Great Recession of a decade ago, the economies of North America took off. A very strong jobs market, record employment, high consumer confidence, deregulation, and a tax cut in the United States stimulated an economy that was already at full throttle. Instead of a “storm” we experienced a powerful explosion. Americans and Canadians were working and spending money, pushing freight volumes to very elevated levels.

2. Climate Change

The subject of rising freight transportation costs has come up on the earnings calls and quarterly reports of almost every publicly traded manufacturer and retailer in 2018. This has been a very challenging year as many transportation expense budgets were shattered by a host of variables including a driver shortage, the ELD mandate and a surging economy.

The financial impact of rapidly rising freight costs caught large numbers of CEOs and CFOs by surprise. Many companies were unprepared for the capacity challenges and financial impacts that took place. Freight transportation expenses are typically in the range of 1 to 5% of sales. This changed in 2018. Suddenly the team that oversees these expenses, and the processes they manage, came under more scrutiny than ever before.

Economists are predicting solid economic growth in 2019 but not quite at the pace of 2018. What can CEOs do to protect their supply chains, the service to their customers, and their profits from further freight cost shock treatments in 2019? Here is a checklist to consider.

1. Eliminate Inefficient and Wasteful Practices

The Surface Transportation Summit celebrated its 10th anniversary at the International Centre on October 10. The event addressed the profound changes that have taken hold of the Transportation industry in 2018 and where they will likely lead us in 2019.

Paul Ferley, Assistant Chief Economist, Royal Bank of Canada, kicked off the day by highlighting that the US economy is operating beyond capacity. The U.S. is stimulating an already hot economy with tax cuts and low interest rates. As we look ahead to 2019, he noted that the level of future growth will depend on the actions of economic policy-makers.

Rising oil prices, still accommodative monetary policy and strong U.S. growth have moved the Canadian economy to capacity. The new USMCA (formerly NAFTA) trade agreement has created stability although with tariffs on steel and aluminum, and a president who can act erratically, this could change at any time.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s objectives will likely be to try to moderate the level of activity. The concern is that President will try to boost an economy that is already over capacity. In Canada, a low dollar coupled with rising oil prices and ongoing increases in interest rates by the Government of Canada are expected to moderate growth.

Over the past few years, one of the defining challenges in the freight transportation industry has been a shortage of qualified drivers. In April of this year, I posted a blog (https://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/what-are-trucking-companies-doing-to-solve-the-driver-shortage ) that examined the range of compensation tools and benefits that are being offered to recruit and retain drivers. In another blog (https://www.dantranscon.com/index.php/blog/entry/trying-to-solve-the-driver-shortage-try-paying-them-a-salary ), I suggested that some trucking companies should consider paying, at least some of their drivers, an hourly rate or salary. The following are some additional compensation schemes that carriers are employing and a few thoughts on the effectiveness of these programs.

Multiple Pay Increases in the same year

To stay competitive, some carriers are providing their drivers with multiple pay increases to ensure they stay on par with the competition.

Payment for Practical Miles